Data and War Headlines Erase Overnight Gains
Data and War Headlines Erase Overnight Gains
Bonds rallied modestly in the overnight session after Trump said the US may exit the war soon. Those gains have been more than erased (just barely) after this morning's data. Both ADP and Retail Sales were stronger than expected although it should be noted that Retail Sales is for the month of February in this case. New Trump headlines also added to the pull-back as he declined to give a timeline on an Iran exit. As of 9:30am ET, MBS were just a hair weaker than unchanged and 10yr yields were up 1.3bps at 4.327. ISM Manufacturing remains on deck at 10am ET and a big beat/miss could have an impact despite general preoccupation with war-related headlines.
slightly stronger overnight with a bit of selling after ADP. MBS still up an eighth and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.301
Giving up gains after Retail Sales. MBS unchanged and 10yr up half a bp at 4.317
Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Apr 01 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Mar/27 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/27 | 159.4 | 163.6 | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/27 MBA Refi Index | Mar/27 | 946.4 | 1145.0 | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/27 Mortgage Market Index | Mar/27 | 278.3 | 310.7 | |
| 8:15AM | Mar ADP jobs (k) | Mar | 62K | 40K | 63K |
| 8:30AM | Feb Retail Sales (%) | Feb | 0.6% | 0.5% | -0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Feb Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Feb | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 9:05AM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 9:13AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Mar | 52.3 | 52.4 | 51.6 |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Manufacturing Employment | Mar | 48.7 | 48.8 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Construction spending (%) | Feb | |||
| 10:00AM | Jan Business Inventories (% ) | Jan | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Mar | 78.3 | 73 | 70.5 |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI | Mar | 52.7 | 52.5 | 52.4 |
| 10:30AM | Mar/27 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/27 | 5.451M | 0.8M | 6.926M |
| 9:00PM | US President Trump Speech (%) | ||||
| Thursday, Apr 02 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Mar Challenger layoffs (k) | Mar | 48.307K | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb Trade Gap (bl) | Feb | $-59.2B | $-54.5B | |
| 8:30AM | Mar/28 Jobless Claims (k) | Mar/28 | 212K | 210K | |
| 8:30AM | Mar/21 Continued Claims (k) | Mar/21 | 1840K | 1819K | |
| 11:00AM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
