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Trump Speech Fuels Another Leg Up For Oil and Yields
Trump Speech Fuels Another Leg Up For Oil and Yields
Things don't always happen like you'd expect. There was some buzz yesterday in the run up to yesterday night's Trump speech. Even during the domestic trading day, we knew the speech would offer some touting of accomplishments and a reiteration that objectives were "nearly complete." Both of those things happened, but the speech also promised forceful escalation under certain circumstances. While that's nothing new, it wasn't what the market was hoping to hear last night. As a result, oil prices and bond yields spiked and stocks sold symmetrically. Bonds are juggling the dueling narratives of inflation and economic fallout--a fact that has helped them avoid tighter correlation with the oil price spike.
Weaker overnight after Trump speech and flat-ish since then. 10yr up 3.3bps at 4.35 and MBS down 7 ticks (.22).
Surprisingly Light Volatility
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Apr 02 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Mar Challenger layoffs (k) | Mar | 60.62K | 48.307K | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Trade Gap (bl) | Feb | $-57.3B | $-59.2B | $-54.5B |
| 8:30AM | Mar/28 Jobless Claims (k) | Mar/28 | 202K | 212K | 210K |
| 8:30AM | Mar/21 Continued Claims (k) | Mar/21 | 1841K | 1840K | 1819K |
| 11:00AM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| Friday, Apr 03 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Mar Participation Rate | Mar | 62% | ||
| 8:30AM | Mar Average earnings mm (%) | Mar | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Mar Unemployment rate mm (%) | Mar | 4.4% | 4.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Mar Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Mar | 60K | -92K | |
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Services PMI | Mar | 51.1 | 51.7 | |
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Composite PMI | Mar | 51.4 | 51.9 | |
| 12:00PM | Good Friday | ||||
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