Nothing Else Happened After Initial Selling

Nothing Else Happened After Initial Selling

The typical early close for the bond market is 2pm ET. This is usually reserved for a holiday-adjacent day such as Christmas Eve or the day after Thanksgiving. Good Friday is unique. On years where it DOES NOT coincide with a jobs report, it's fully closed. Otherwise, it's open for a partial day, but only until noon ET instead of 2pm. That didn't leave much time for anything else to happen this morning after the initial bout of moderate selling pressure.  It also discouraged trading volume in general--especially in light of other markets being fully closed. 

Market Movement Recap
09:02 AM

Weaker after jobs report. MBS down 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr up 4.2bps at 4.349

12:31 PM

bonds closed now. Pretty flat all day after initial selling. MBS down a quarter point. and 10yr up 3.4bps at 4.341

Latest Video Analysis

Nothing Else Happened After Initial Selling

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 98.66 -0.24 10YR 4.341% +0.034% 4/3/2026 12:59PM EST
Today's jobs report is/was the only big-ticket calendar event and the most obvious source of bond market inspiration. That's doubly true considering the even earlier-than-normal early close (12pm ET) for Good Friday. Payrolls were hot at 178k vs -133k previously.  The big swing is the first hint that payrolls should be taken with a grain of salt. Large swings were expected, to some extent, due to large strikes and the end of those strikes. Weird weather played a role to ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.45% +0.04% 15YR Fixed 6.02% +0.01% 4/3/2026
On any given Thursday, there's a decent enough chance that the average mortgage rate headline will be unintentionally misleading. At issue is media reliance on the longstanding weekly mortgage rate surveys. If news stories are going to cite this data, that's fine, but it's critical to understand the methodology. Whether it's MBA (reported yesterday) or Freddie Mac (reported today), the weekly surveys have an inherent reporting lag--that is, they are published at least a day...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Apr 03
8:30AM Mar Participation Rate Mar 61.9% 62%
8:30AM Mar Unemployment rate mm (%) Mar 4.3% 4.4% 4.4%
8:30AM Mar Non Farm Payrolls (k) Mar 178K 60K -92K
8:30AM Mar Average earnings mm (%) Mar 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
9:45AM Mar S&P Global Services PMI Mar 49.8 51.1 51.7
9:45AM Mar S&P Global Composite PMI Mar 50.3 51.4 51.9
12:00PM Good Friday
Monday, Apr 06
10:00AM Mar ISM Biz Activity Mar 59.9
10:00AM Mar ISM Services Prices Mar 63.0
10:00AM Mar ISM Services New Orders Mar 58.6
10:00AM Mar ISM N-Mfg PMI Mar 55 56.1
10:00AM Mar ISM Services Employment Mar 51.8
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First things first, due to the market's reaction to the Iran war, mortgage rates remain much higher than they were at the end of February. That said, they definitely did not move higher this week. You may have seen contrary headlines on Wednesday and Thursday. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and Freddie Mac release their weekly rate surveys on those days, respectively. Both reported shar... READ MORE