Holiday-Adjacent Waiting Game

Holiday-Adjacent Waiting Game

Monday may not have been an official holiday for the U.S. bond market, but it way as well have been. Volume certainly acted the part, which is no surprise considering overseas holiday closures. Headlines and data had a limited impact, at best. In general the market is waiting to see what happens in Iran after tomorrow night's deadline on Trump's ultimatum to reopen shipping channels.

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Holiday-Adjacent Waiting Game

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 98.87 +0.02 10YR 4.331% -0.009% 4/7/2026 8:33AM EST
Much of the international trading community remains on holiday today, making for lower volume and liquidity in the US. Bonds have managed to mostly shrug off Friday's stronger jobs report--a fact that we'd attribute mainly to the focus on the unemployment rate over the balmy payroll count. Additionally, war-related developments remain near the top of the heap of relevant market movers until their impacts translate more forcefully to economic data. On that note, we'll get IS...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.43% -0.02% 15YR Fixed 6.01% -0.01% 4/6/2026
It was an uneventful day for mortgage rates with the average lender close enough to Friday's levels that borrowers would not see much of a difference between the two days. The bond market (which underlies and dictates rate movement) was still in quasi-holiday mode as most overseas markets were closed for holidays. Financial markets (including bonds) continue taking cues from major developments in the Iran war, but today ended up being more about waiting for those events b...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Apr 07
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 26K 10K
8:30AM Feb Core CapEx (%) Feb 0.6% 0.4% 0%
8:30AM Feb Durable goods (%) Feb -1.4% -0.5% 0%
11:00AM Mar Consumer Inflation Expectations Mar 3%
12:35PM Fed Goolsbee Speech
1:00PM 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 58
3:00PM Feb Consumer credit (bl) Feb $10B $8.05B
5:50PM Fed Jefferson Speech
Wednesday, Apr 08
7:00AM Apr/03 MBA Refi Index Apr/03 946.4
7:00AM Apr/03 Mortgage Market Index Apr/03 278.3
7:00AM Apr/03 MBA Purchase Index Apr/03 159.4
10:30AM Apr/03 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Apr/03 5.451M
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 39
1:05PM Fed Daly Speech
2:00PM FOMC Minutes
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First things first, due to the market's reaction to the Iran war, mortgage rates remain much higher than they were at the end of February. That said, they definitely did not move higher this week. You may have seen contrary headlines on Wednesday and Thursday. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and Freddie Mac release their weekly rate surveys on those days, respectively. Both reported shar... READ MORE