Wednesday Could Be Entirely Different

Wednesday Could Be Entirely Different

April 7th has been one of the most important days on the calendar for the Iran war due to deadline for Iran to accept Trump's terms or face major escalation. If the escalation was even remotely similar to Trump's threats, it would all but preclude a quick end to the war and especially the market-related fallout. heading into the close, Pakistan floated an option for a 2-week ceasefire in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Markets responded favorably to notion with stocks and bond both rallying and oil prices falling to session lows. Given the absolute and severe nature of the alternative, it would be a surprise if tomorrow didn't involve a larger than normal move in one direction or the other.

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Wednesday Could Be Entirely Different

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.44 +0.44 10YR 4.248% -0.048% 4/8/2026 8:21AM EST
MBS have lost another eighth of a point since the last alert. Early/jumpy lenders are increasingly at risk of a negative reprice.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.44% +0.01% 15YR Fixed 6.02% +0.01% 4/7/2026
In stark contrast to the entire month of March, April's mortgage rate volatility has been downright boring. To put this in context, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate rose a substantial 0.65% by March 27th. In the first five business days of April, they've held inside a range of just 0.04%. Today did nothing to expand that range although it did leave rates microscopically higher versus yesterday. The Iran war continues to be the dominant source of inspiration for the fi...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Apr 08
7:00AM Apr/03 MBA Refi Index Apr/03 919.9 946.4
7:00AM Apr/03 Mortgage Market Index Apr/03 276.0 278.3
7:00AM Apr/03 MBA Purchase Index Apr/03 161.1 159.4
10:30AM Apr/03 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Apr/03 0.7M 5.451M
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 39
1:05PM Fed Daly Speech
2:00PM FOMC Minutes
Thursday, Apr 09
8:30AM Apr/04 Jobless Claims (k) Apr/04 210K 202K
8:30AM Mar/28 Continued Claims (k) Mar/28 1840K 1841K
8:30AM Feb PCE prices (m/m) (%) Feb 0.4% 0.3%
8:30AM Q4 PCE Prices (Q/Q) Q4 2.9% 2.8%
8:30AM Feb Core PCE (y/y) (%) Feb 3% 3.1%
8:30AM Feb Core PCE (m/m) (%) Feb 0.4% 0.4%
8:30AM Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ Q4 2.7% 2.9%
8:30AM Feb PCE (y/y) (%) Feb 2.8% 2.8%
8:30AM Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) Q4 0.4% 4.5%
8:30AM Q4 GDP (%) Q4 0.7% 4.4%
8:30AM Q4 Corporate profits (% ) Q4 4.7%
12:00PM WASDE Report (%)
1:00PM 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 22
1:00PM 30-Year Bond Auction 4.871%
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First things first, due to the market's reaction to the Iran war, mortgage rates remain much higher than they were at the end of February. That said, they definitely did not move higher this week. You may have seen contrary headlines on Wednesday and Thursday. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and Freddie Mac release their weekly rate surveys on those days, respectively. Both reported shar... READ MORE