Flood of Data. No Real Reaction. Back to Watching Headlines
Flood of Data. No Real Reaction. Back to Watching Headlines
The overnight session leading into this morning's open was completely sideways--especially compared to yesterday's example. The boatload of econ data line items did nothing to change that. Expectations weren't high anyway. GDP (Q4) and monthly PCE (February) are both too stale to matter. Jobless Claims were a mixed bag with initial claims rising substantially and continued claims falling off a cliff (lowest since May 2024). But again, bonds have done nothing with the data and trading levels are almost perfectly flat to start another day of watching war headlines.
Very flat overnight. Slightly weaker after data. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up half a bp at 4.30
weakest levels. MBS down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.311
10s now down 1bp at 4.285. MBS are within 1 tick (.03) of unchanged.
Bonds Give Up Almost All The Overnight Gains
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Apr 09 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr/04 Jobless Claims (k) | Apr/04 | 219K | 210K | 202K |
| 8:30AM | Mar/28 Continued Claims (k) | Mar/28 | 1794K | 1840K | 1841K |
| 8:30AM | Feb PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Feb | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q4 | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Feb Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Feb | 3% | 3% | 3.1% |
| 8:30AM | Feb Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Feb | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q4 | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% |
| 8:30AM | Feb PCE (y/y) (%) | Feb | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 4.5% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP (%) | Q4 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 4.4% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Corporate profits (% ) | Q4 | 5.7% | 4.7% | |
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 22 | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.876% | 4.871% | ||
| Friday, Apr 10 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Mar m/m Headline CPI (%) | Mar | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Mar m/m CORE CPI (%) | Mar | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Mar y/y CORE CPI (%) | Mar | 2.7% | 2.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Mar y/y Headline CPI (%) | Mar | 3.3% | 2.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Factory orders mm (%) | Feb | -0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Apr Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Apr | 52 | 53.3 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr U Mich conditions | Apr | 55.8 | ||
| 10:00AM | Apr Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Apr | 3.2% | ||
| 10:00AM | Apr Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Apr | 3.8% | ||
| 2:00PM | Mar Federal budget (bl) | Mar | $-156.75B | $-308B | |
