Mortgage Loan Advisor
PMP Mortgage / Your Lender Chris
License:
1466899

Why Aren't Bonds Responding to a Big Beat in Inflation Data?

Why Aren't Bonds Responding to a Big Beat in Inflation Data?

Bonds were fairly flat overnight and haven't moved much so far in the domestic session. More importantly, until 7am, bonds were slightly weaker even as oil prices have fallen and stocks have rallied.  What gives?! If PPI had come in much higher than expected, it would be easier to explain. But despite the 0.1 vs 0.5 reading for core monthly numbers, the PPI components that track with the more important PCE inflation metrics were actually a bit higher. In addition, the ill effects of fuel prices have already wreaked havoc on March inflation data. If we assume (and we should) that the full effects of higher fuel prices were not yet reflected in March prices at the time of the PPI data collection, bonds have to continue treading cautiously over the inflation outlook in coming months. Away from the data and war headlines, there are other considerations ranging from new estimates of the cost to fund the war and new warnings about forced selling of leveraged bond holdings if rates start rising again.

Market Movement Recap
08:32 AM

No real reaction to PPI data despite being much lower than expected.  MBS unchanged on the day and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.293

10:39 AM

Best levels of the day with MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.277

02:08 PM

Best levels. MBS up nearly a quarter point and 10yr down 3.4bps at 4.255

Latest Video Analysis

Selling Reverses After De-Escalation Headlines

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.38 +0.23 10YR 4.254% -0.035% 4/14/2026 2:15PM EST
Bonds were fairly flat overnight and haven't moved much so far in the domestic session. More importantly, until 7am, bonds were slightly weaker even as oil prices have fallen and stocks have rallied.  What gives?! If PPI had come in much higher than expected, it would be easier to explain. But despite the 0.1 vs 0.5 reading for core monthly numbers, the PPI components that track with the more important PCE inflation metrics were actually a bit higher. In additi...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.31% -0.08% 15YR Fixed 5.96% -0.03% 4/14/2026
Mortgage rates are based on movement in the bond market and although bonds experienced some volatility in response to Iran war news over the weekend, they ended up in similar territory to Friday morning. As such, it's no surprise to see mortgage rates in similar territory as well.  The average lender began the day 0.02% higher than Friday, but bonds improved during the day and some mortgage lenders were able to make small downward adjustments mid-day. This keep the av...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Apr 14
6:00AM Mar NFIB Business Optimism Index Mar 95.8 98.6 98.8
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 39K 26K
8:30AM Mar PPI y/y Mar 4% 4.6% 3.4%
8:30AM Mar PPI m/m (%) Mar 0.5% 1.1% 0.7%
8:30AM Mar Core PPI y/y (%) Mar 3.8% 4.1% 3.9%
8:30AM Mar Core PPI m/m (%) Mar 0.1% 0.5% 0.5%
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.630% 3.615%
12:15PM Fed Goolsbee Speech
12:45PM Fed Barr Speech
1:00PM Fed Collins Speech
Wednesday, Apr 15
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR
7:00AM Apr/10 MBA Refi Index Apr/10 919.9
7:00AM Apr/10 MBA Purchase Index Apr/10 161.1
7:00AM Apr/10 Mortgage Market Index Apr/10 276.0
8:30AM Apr NY Fed Manufacturing Apr -0.5 -0.20
8:30AM Mar Import prices mm (%) Mar 2% 1.3%
8:30AM Fed Barr Speech
10:00AM Apr NAHB housing market indx Apr 37 38
10:30AM Apr/10 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Apr/10 3.081M
12:00PM NOPA Crush Report (%)
1:45PM Fed Bowman Speech
2:00PM Fed Beige Book
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Whereas the entire month of March was "up, up, and away" for interest rates, April has been far calmer by comparison. The average lender ended the week in slightly lower territory and there was less volatility to boot. Refreshingly, the lower volatility means that weekly surveys were aligned with daily rates in showing the modest drop ( unlike last week ). That said, there's no question th... READ MORE
Mortgage Loan Advisor
PMP Mortgage / Your Lender Chris
License:
1466899