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Bonds Ultimately Follow Oil's Lead, Heading Lower On War-Related Optimism
Bonds Ultimately Follow Oil's Lead, Heading Lower On War-Related Optimism
While there were no incredibly memorable sound bytes on the Iran war today, there were a few headlines that proved to be actionable for financial markets. The most actionable (by a wide margin) was a report on Fox News around 10am quoting a senior admin official as saying "a lot is happening today and tomorrow. We have all the ingredients of a deal, but it's not all there yet." This was paraphrased by Fox as "Senior Trump Admin. Official: Strong Indicators Toward Reaching Agreement With Iran." Oil and bond yields dropped on the news and both moves continued into the afternoon. Stocks rallied and have now essentially fully recovered the war-related losses.
Bonds Follow Oil's Lead, Heading Lower on War-Related Optimism
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Apr 15 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Apr/10 MBA Refi Index | Apr/10 | 919.9 | ||
| 7:00AM | Apr/10 MBA Purchase Index | Apr/10 | 161.1 | ||
| 7:00AM | Apr/10 Mortgage Market Index | Apr/10 | 276.0 | ||
| 8:30AM | Apr NY Fed Manufacturing | Apr | -0.5 | -0.20 | |
| 8:30AM | Mar Import prices mm (%) | Mar | 2% | 1.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Apr NAHB housing market indx | Apr | 37 | 38 | |
| 10:30AM | Apr/10 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Apr/10 | 0.2M | 3.081M | |
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
| 1:45PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| Thursday, Apr 16 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr/11 Jobless Claims (k) | Apr/11 | 215K | 219K | |
| 8:30AM | Apr/04 Continued Claims (k) | Apr/04 | 1794K | ||
| 8:30AM | Apr Philly Fed Prices Paid | Apr | 44.70 | ||
| 8:30AM | Apr Philly Fed Business Index | Apr | 9 | 18.1 | |
| 8:35AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 9:15AM | Mar Industrial Production (%) | Mar | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 10:35AM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
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