Gavin Hamilton
Loan Officer
Mortgage Express LLC
P: (503) 517-8983
M: (310) 422-4731
15115 SW Sequoia Parkway
Suite 100
Portland OR 97224
License:
NMLS 857506

Bonds Ultimately Follow Oil's Lead, Heading Lower On War-Related Optimism

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Bonds Ultimately Follow Oil's Lead, Heading Lower On War-Related Optimism

While there were no incredibly memorable sound bytes on the Iran war today, there were a few headlines that proved to be actionable for financial markets. The most actionable (by a wide margin) was a report on Fox News around 10am quoting a senior admin official as saying "a lot is happening today and tomorrow. We have all the ingredients of a deal, but it's not all there yet." This was paraphrased by Fox as "Senior Trump Admin. Official: Strong Indicators Toward Reaching Agreement With Iran." Oil and bond yields dropped on the news and both moves continued into the afternoon. Stocks rallied and have now essentially fully recovered the war-related losses.

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Bonds Follow Oil's Lead, Heading Lower on War-Related Optimism

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.29 -0.09 10YR 4.265% +0.015% 4/15/2026 7:31AM EST
Why Aren't Bonds Responding to a Big Beat in Inflation Data?
Bonds were fairly flat overnight and haven't moved much so far in the domestic session. More importantly, until 7am, bonds were slightly weaker even as oil prices have fallen and stocks have rallied.  What gives?! If PPI had come in much higher than expected, it would be easier to explain. But despite the 0.1 vs 0.5 reading for core monthly numbers, the PPI components that track with the more important PCE inflation metrics were actually a bit higher. In additi...   READ MORE
MBS Morning:
Overnight Weakness (But Bouncing Back) After Peace Talks Fail
Alert:
Weakest Levels of The Day
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.31% -0.08% 15YR Fixed 5.96% -0.03% 4/14/2026
Lowest Mortgage Rates in 4 Weeks
Mortgage rates had their best day of the month so far with the top tier 30yr fixed rate falling 0.08% for the average lender to the lowest levels in exactly 4 weeks. Today's improvement is a bit bigger than today's bond market movement would suggest. The discrepancy is due to timing. Bonds were improving fairly steadily since yesterday morning and the average lender didn't adjust yesterday's rates in response to the bond market improvement in the last few hours of the day....   READ MORE
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Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Apr 15
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR
7:00AM Apr/10 MBA Refi Index Apr/10 966.8 919.9
7:00AM Apr/10 MBA Purchase Index Apr/10 159.5 161.1
7:00AM Apr/10 Mortgage Market Index Apr/10 281.0 276.0
8:30AM Apr NY Fed Manufacturing Apr 11.00 -0.5 -0.20
8:30AM Mar Import prices mm (%) Mar 0.8% 2% 1.3%
8:30AM Fed Barr Speech
10:00AM Apr NAHB housing market indx Apr 37 38
10:30AM Apr/10 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Apr/10 0.2M 3.081M
12:00PM NOPA Crush Report (%)
1:45PM Fed Bowman Speech
2:00PM Fed Beige Book
Thursday, Apr 16
8:30AM Apr/11 Jobless Claims (k) Apr/11 215K 219K
8:30AM Apr/04 Continued Claims (k) Apr/04 1794K
8:30AM Apr Philly Fed Prices Paid Apr 44.70
8:30AM Apr Philly Fed Business Index Apr 9 18.1
8:35AM Fed Williams Speech
9:15AM Mar Industrial Production (%) Mar 0.1% 0.2%
10:35AM Fed Miran Speech
Recent Housing News
Read My Latest Newsletter
War Still Weighing on Rates, But Volatility Continues to Ebb
4/10/2026 3:34PM
Whereas the entire month of March was "up, up, and away" for interest rates, April has been far calmer by comparison. The average lender ended the week in slightly lower territory and there was less volatility to boot. Refreshingly, the lower volatility means that weekly surveys were aligned with daily rates in showing the modest drop ( unlike last week ). That said, there's no question th... READ MORE
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Gavin Hamilton
Loan Officer
Mortgage Express LLC
P: (503) 517-8983
M: (310) 422-4731
15115 SW Sequoia Parkway
Suite 100
Portland OR 97224
License:
NMLS 857506
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