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Very Small Token Pull-Back
Very Small Token Pull-Back
Nothing really happened on Wednesday as far as the bond market was concerned. Yields were technically a few bps higher thus preserving the phenomenon of rally momentum being limited to 48-hour windows since the start of the Iran war. Despite a barrage of war-related headlines, there was remarkably light volatility in oil prices. Markets seem to be waiting on truly momentous developments (such as a major resumption of hostilities or a confirmed/permanent ceasefire). In the meantime, stocks and bonds both did their own thing today without any of the recently typical correlation to oil prices.
Modestly weaker overnight, partly following oil. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.268
Weaker into the noon hour, but stabilizing now. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.284
little-changed since last update. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.1bps at 4.281
Very Small Token Pull-Back
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Apr 15 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Apr/10 MBA Refi Index | Apr/10 | 966.8 | 919.9 | |
| 7:00AM | Apr/10 MBA Purchase Index | Apr/10 | 159.5 | 161.1 | |
| 7:00AM | Apr/10 Mortgage Market Index | Apr/10 | 281.0 | 276.0 | |
| 8:30AM | Apr NY Fed Manufacturing | Apr | 11.00 | -0.5 | -0.20 |
| 8:30AM | Mar Import prices mm (%) | Mar | 0.8% | 2% | 1.3% |
| 8:30AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Apr NAHB housing market indx | Apr | 34 | 37 | 38 |
| 10:30AM | Apr/10 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Apr/10 | -0.913M | 0.2M | 3.081M |
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
| 1:45PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| Thursday, Apr 16 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr/11 Jobless Claims (k) | Apr/11 | 215K | 219K | |
| 8:30AM | Apr/04 Continued Claims (k) | Apr/04 | 1810K | 1794K | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Philly Fed Prices Paid | Apr | 44.70 | ||
| 8:30AM | Apr Philly Fed Business Index | Apr | 10 | 18.1 | |
| 8:35AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 9:15AM | Mar Industrial Production (%) | Mar | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 10:35AM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
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