Bonds Only Modestly Weaker After New Escalation Over The Weekend

Bonds Only Modestly Weaker After New Escalation Over The Weekend

Heading into the weekend, all indications were about as promising as they have been that the war was heading toward a peaceful conclusion. This was reflected in oil prices and Treasury yields being at multi-week lows (and stocks at all-time highs). But over the weekend, the U.S. fired on and seized an Iranian ship, and Iran said it was cancelling plans to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices retraced almost all of Friday's drop on the news and bonds erased more than half of the associated gains. But both began bouncing back slowly in overnight trading. Bonds are now moving back into positive territory on recent headlines that suggest peace talks are back on.

Market Movement Recap
08:51 AM

Bonds only modestly weaker despite initial overnight jump in yields. 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.262 and MBS down 2 ticks (.06).

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AM Gains Mostly Stick Around

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.47 -0.03 10YR 4.251% +0.004% 4/20/2026 9:55AM EST
Heading into the weekend, all indications were about as promising as they have been that the war was heading toward a peaceful conclusion. This was reflected in oil prices and Treasury yields being at multi-week lows (and stocks at all-time highs). But over the weekend, the U.S. fired on and seized an Iranian ship, and Iran said it was cancelling plans to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices retraced almost all of Friday's drop on the news and bonds erased more than half ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.29% -0.03% 15YR Fixed 5.91% -0.05% 4/17/2026
Today was a victory for mortgage rates , but not nearly as much of a victory as the underlying bond market would suggest. The good news is that the end result is the lowest average 30yr fixed rate in just over a month.  The other news isn't bad, per se, but it is a bit confusing.  As we often discuss, mortgage rates are based on bonds because mortgages "turn into" bonds in order to be traded on the secondary market. You don't need to understand that process in ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Apr 20
12:00AM Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR
Tuesday, Apr 21
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 39K
8:30AM Mar Retail Sales (%) Mar 1.4% 0.6%
8:30AM Mar Retail Sales Control Group MoM Mar 0.2% 0.5%
10:00AM Feb Business Inventories (% ) Feb 0.3% -0.1%
10:00AM Mar Pending Home Sales (%) Mar 0.1% 1.8%
10:00AM Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh Confirmation Hearing
10:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) $7.587 billion
2:30PM Fed Waller Speech
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The good news: mortgage rates ended the week at the lowest levels in more than a month. The puzzling news: rates fell only modestly on Friday even though the bond market said they could have fallen more. Mortgage lenders consider several factors when deciding where to set mortgage rates. By far and away, the bond market is the most important of those factors. But sometimes rates don't do exa... READ MORE