Volatility Picked Up Despite Lackluster News Quality
Volatility Picked Up Despite Lackluster News Quality
It's not exactly a new problem, but the issue of incorrect or misconstrued headlines is growing larger as the Iran war persists. It makes sense considering the current lull in both military and diplomatic developments. People who write and profit from breaking newswires are eager to cash in on clicks and dollars. Around 1pm ET today, several newswires created obvious volatility for bonds/oil/stocks. These involved an apparent resignation of a key Iranian official from the negotiations team and the implication that Tehran's activated air defenses meant a breach of the ceasefire. Both were refuted. Markets corrected slightly, but a certain amount of damage was done (also, markets may not believe the refutations). The net impact on bonds remained small with 10s only up a few bps and MBS down just over an eighth of a point.
Volatility Picked Up Despite Lackluster News Quality
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Apr 24 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Apr Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Apr | 47.6 | 53.3 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr U Mich conditions | Apr | 50.1 | 55.8 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Apr | 4.8% | 3.8% | |
| 10:00AM | Apr Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Apr | 3.4% | 3.2% | |
| Monday, Apr 27 | |||||
| 10:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) | $5.058 billion | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 69 | |||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||