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Oil Dropping, Bonds Rallying, Data Largely Ignored
Oil Dropping, Bonds Rallying, Data Largely Ignored
From an analytical standpoint, it's hard to offer new and interesting insights when the order of any given day is simply to observe broad war-related sentiment via oil prices. From there, if bonds are diverging, we have a few things to discuss, but if bond yields are following, the case is closed. Today's case is mostly closed as the correlation is mostly there. The only minor divergence arrived after the boatload of AM econ data. It wasn't much of a move, but it was in a friendly direction despite sharply lower jobless claims. Perhaps the market was modestly relieved that year over year PCE "only" rose to 3.5%?
Mostly War-Related Weakness With a Small Boost From The Fed
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Apr 30 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr/25 Jobless Claims (k) | Apr/25 | 189K | 215K | 214K |
| 8:30AM | Apr/18 Continued Claims (k) | Apr/18 | 1785K | 1820K | 1821K |
| 8:30AM | Mar Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Mar | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Mar PCE (y/y) (%) | Mar | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Employment costs (%) | Q1 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q1 | 1.6% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Mar Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Mar | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q1 | 4.5% | 2.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP (%) | Q1 | 2.0% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q1 | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% |
| 8:30AM | Mar PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Mar | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| 9:45AM | Apr Chicago PMI | Apr | 49.2 | 53 | 52.8 |
| 10:00AM | Feb CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Feb | 0.3% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 10:00AM | Mar CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Mar | -0.6% | 0.3% | |
| Friday, May 01 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Apr S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Apr | 54.0 | 52.3 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Manufacturing PMI | Apr | 53 | 52.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Apr | 80 | 78.3 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Manufacturing Employment | Apr | 49 | 48.7 | |
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