Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely
Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely
Ever since bottoming out together on the morning of April 17th, bond yields and oil prices have been moving higher together. The early overnight trading hours may have witnessed a bit of a "blow-off top" (fancy words that basically mean markets reversed course simply because they'd gone too high, too fast). In other words, there wasn't an overt reason for the reversal in the news cycle. That said, there arguably wasn't sufficient justification for the last leg of the rate/oil spike seen yesterday. Econ data didn't necessarily drive any of the movement, but with PCE falling right in line with expectations, it didn't get in the way. Perhaps more impressive is that bonds didn't see any selling pressure from the lowest jobless claims reading in more than 3 years.
Mostly War-Related Weakness With a Small Boost From The Fed
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Apr 30 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr/25 Jobless Claims (k) | Apr/25 | 189K | 215K | 214K |
| 8:30AM | Apr/18 Continued Claims (k) | Apr/18 | 1785K | 1820K | 1821K |
| 8:30AM | Mar Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Mar | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Mar PCE (y/y) (%) | Mar | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Employment costs (%) | Q1 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q1 | 1.6% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Mar Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Mar | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q1 | 4.5% | 2.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP (%) | Q1 | 2.0% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q1 | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% |
| 8:30AM | Mar PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Mar | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| 9:45AM | Apr Chicago PMI | Apr | 49.2 | 53 | 52.8 |
| 10:00AM | Feb CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Feb | 0.3% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 10:00AM | Mar CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Mar | -0.6% | 0.3% | |
| Friday, May 01 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Apr S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Apr | 54.0 | 52.3 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Manufacturing PMI | Apr | 53 | 52.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Apr | 80 | 78.3 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Manufacturing Employment | Apr | 49 | 48.7 | |
