Clayton Silva
Branch Manager
Atlas Mortgage Group (A Team of Cornerstone First Mortgage LLC)
P: (209) 329-8567
www.atlasmortgagegrp.com
2655 Camino Del Rio N #100
San Diego CA 92108
License:
2147192

Rallying on Peace Hopes and Weaker Data

Friday, May 1, 2026

Rallying on Peace Hopes and Weaker Data

Bonds were almost perfectly flat during the overnight session along with oil and stock futures. Morning trading ushered in more volatility as the war-related headlines began to heat up. The most significant developments involve reports of a new peace proposal from Iran--one that potentially offers more concessions on nuclear aspirations. News is thin so far, but oil prices are moving lower and bond yields are following with 10s moving from 4.40 to under 4.35 in fairly short order. ISM Manufacturing came in weaker around the same time and contributed to the move.

Latest Video Analysis

Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 98.69 -0.06 10YR 4.375% +0.004% 5/1/2026 1:50PM EST
MBS Alert: Down Over an Eighth From The Highs
This alert only applies to lenders who priced or repriced after 10:20am ET. MBS are down 6 ticks (.19) since then. In some similar cases in the past, lenders who rushed to reprice for the better (after the type of early gains seen today) have had to do a token, corrective reprice that brings them back in line with their original rate sheets.  This isn't necessarily likely at this point, but it's on the verge of being a possibility.  As for the reversal, the marke...   READ MORE
MBS Morning:
Rallying on Peace Hopes and Weaker Data
MBS Morning:
Oil Dropping, Bonds Rallying, Data Largely Ignored
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.44% -0.01% 15YR Fixed 6.01% +0.00% 5/1/2026
Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Yesterday's Losses
Mortgage rates spiked on Wednesday (yesterday) after reports suggested a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As has been the case for most of the past 2 months, interest rate movement was clearly correlated with oil prices. Now today, both are moving back in the other direction though not for reasons that are as obvious as yesterday's. The rally began just after 2am ET with both oil prices and bond yields dropping in concert. Lower bond yields mean lower rates, all...   READ MORE
Last Week This Week Next Week
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, May 01
9:45AM Apr S&P Global Manuf. PMI Apr 54.5 54.0 52.3
10:00AM Apr ISM Manufacturing PMI Apr 52.7 53 52.7
10:00AM Apr ISM Mfg Prices Paid Apr 84.6 80 78.3
10:00AM Apr ISM Manufacturing Employment Apr 46.4 49 48.7
Monday, May 04
10:00AM Mar Factory orders mm (%) Mar 0.4% 0%
12:50PM Fed Williams Speech
2:00PM Apr Total Vehicle Sales (ml) Apr 16.0M 16.3M
2:00PM Loan Officer Survey
Clayton Silva
Branch Manager
Atlas Mortgage Group (A Team of Cornerstone First Mortgage LLC)
P: (209) 329-8567
www.atlasmortgagegrp.com
2655 Camino Del Rio N #100
San Diego CA 92108
License:
2147192
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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.