Some Volatility Surrounding Headlines, But Not Much Change

Some Volatility Surrounding Headlines, But Not Much Change

Bonds began the day roughly flat before losing ground modestly into the 9am hour as markets mis-read headlines regarding new peace proposals submitted by Iran. But just before 10am, similar headlines resurfaced including the claim that Iran's new proposal made concessions regarding Iran's nuclear aspirations. This accounted for a swift move into positive territory that was only partially reversed after Trump said he wasn't satisfied with the latest proposal despite acknowledging progress in the peace talks. The net effect is a bond market that is roughly unchanged heading into the 3pm CME close. As has been the case, any major progress toward peace over the weekend (or any major escalation) could result in trading levels being drastically different on Monday morning.

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Some Volatility Surrounding Headlines, But Not Much Change

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 98.62 -0.13 10YR 4.376% +0.005% 5/1/2026 4:17PM EST
This alert only applies to lenders who priced or repriced after 10:20am ET. MBS are down 6 ticks (.19) since then. In some similar cases in the past, lenders who rushed to reprice for the better (after the type of early gains seen today) have had to do a token, corrective reprice that brings them back in line with their original rate sheets.  This isn't necessarily likely at this point, but it's on the verge of being a possibility.  As for the reversal, the marke...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.44% -0.01% 15YR Fixed 6.01% +0.00% 5/1/2026
Low volatility was the most obvious theme for mortgage rates last week. From April 14th through last Friday, the range for a top-tier 30yr fixed rate remained in an ultra-narrow range of 6.29-6.33%. That trend persisted on Monday of this week, but things changed abruptly after that. Tuesday and Wednesday saw moderately big increases that took the average all the way up to 6.50%.  The past two days have been much calmer by comparison, even if rates remain elevated ver...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, May 01
9:45AM Apr S&P Global Manuf. PMI Apr 54.5 54.0 52.3
10:00AM Apr ISM Manufacturing PMI Apr 52.7 53 52.7
10:00AM Apr ISM Mfg Prices Paid Apr 84.6 80 78.3
10:00AM Apr ISM Manufacturing Employment Apr 46.4 49 48.7
Monday, May 04
10:00AM Mar Factory orders mm (%) Mar 0.4% 0%
12:50PM Fed Williams Speech
2:00PM Apr Total Vehicle Sales (ml) Apr 16.0M 16.3M
2:00PM Loan Officer Survey