Data Didn't Hurt, But Bonds Underperformed The Oil Price Recovery
Data Didn't Hurt, But Bonds Underperformed The Oil Price Recovery
Today's headline is somewhat misleading. It points out the fact that oil prices made it back to yesterday's lows whereas bond yields didn't even come close. This is all true, assuming we're looking at front month oil prices. But if we use a longer-term futures contract for oil, the correlation with bonds was actually closer to 1:1. Either way, the bond rally only unwound a fraction of yesterday's losses and that's especially true for MBS (5.0 coupons lost half a point yesterday, but regained less than a quarter point today). Econ data didn't hurt, but it didn't exactly help either. ISM and Job Openings were both very close to consensus.
Bonds Underperformed Oil Price Recovery
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, May 06 | |||||
| 7:00AM | May/01 MBA Purchase Index | May/01 | 177.7 | ||
| 7:00AM | May/01 Mortgage Market Index | May/01 | 298.5 | ||
| 7:00AM | May/01 MBA Refi Index | May/01 | 977.9 | ||
| 8:15AM | Apr ADP jobs (k) | Apr | 99K | 62K | |
| 9:30AM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | May/01 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | May/01 | -2.8M | -6.233M | |
| 1:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 1:30PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| Thursday, May 07 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Apr Challenger layoffs (k) | Apr | 60.62K | ||
| 8:30AM | Apr/25 Continued Claims (k) | Apr/25 | 1800K | 1785K | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final | Q1 | 2.6% | 4.4% | |
| 8:30AM | May/02 Jobless Claims (k) | May/02 | 205K | 189K | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Construction spending (%) | Feb | |||
| 10:00AM | Mar Construction spending (%) | Mar | 0.2% | -0.3% | |
| 10:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $7.585 billion | |||
| 11:00AM | Apr Consumer Inflation Expectations | Apr | 3.4% | ||
| 2:05PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 3:00PM | Mar Consumer credit (bl) | Mar | $12.5B | $9.48B | |
| 3:30PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
