Big Overnight Recovery on Peace Deal Reports
Big Overnight Recovery on Peace Deal Reports
There was one, big, obvious market mover overnight. At 4:50am ET, Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran are close to signing a one page memo of understanding to end the war. Oil and bond yields were already in recovery mode, but this kicked things into higher gear. Most of the gains remain even after both sides offered refutations (which the market now perceives as merely a negotiation tactic). Subsequent reports from other sources also speak to specific details in the peace deal that seem to specific to be made up. In early trading, ADP employment data had no impact and Treasury's confirmation of unchanged auction sizes helped bonds hold the overnight gains.
Bonds Underperformed Oil Price Recovery
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, May 06 | |||||
| 7:00AM | May/01 MBA Purchase Index | May/01 | 171.1 | 177.7 | |
| 7:00AM | May/01 Mortgage Market Index | May/01 | 285.3 | 298.5 | |
| 7:00AM | May/01 MBA Refi Index | May/01 | 928.6 | 977.9 | |
| 8:15AM | Apr ADP jobs (k) | Apr | 109K | 99K | 62K |
| 8:30AM | 10-Year Note Auction | ||||
| 9:30AM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | May/01 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | May/01 | -2.314M | -3.3M | -6.233M |
| 1:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 1:30PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| Thursday, May 07 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Apr Challenger layoffs (k) | Apr | 60.62K | ||
| 8:30AM | Apr/25 Continued Claims (k) | Apr/25 | 1800K | 1785K | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final | Q1 | 2.6% | 4.4% | |
| 8:30AM | May/02 Jobless Claims (k) | May/02 | 205K | 189K | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Construction spending (%) | Feb | |||
| 10:00AM | Mar Construction spending (%) | Mar | 0.2% | -0.3% | |
| 10:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $7.585 billion | |||
| 11:00AM | Apr Consumer Inflation Expectations | Apr | 3.4% | ||
| 2:05PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 3:00PM | Mar Consumer credit (bl) | Mar | $12.5B | $9.48B | |
| 3:30PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
