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Highest Yields in 10 Months on War Headlines and Auction Concessions
Highest Yields in 10 Months on War Headlines and Auction Concessions
Because CPI came out slightly higher today and because of its status as a bigger potential market mover, many rate watchers will assume that's the reason 10yr yields closed at their highest level since last July. But bond yields were actually lower in the first 40 minutes post-CPI. It wasn't until newswires cited Trump saying he's in no hurry to end the war that yields began spiking (and stocks began selling). It's also worth noting that yields were already up to 4.44% ahead of CPI and only moved 2bps higher by the close (i.e. not much intraday movement in the grand scheme). Could CPI have been a factor for some traders? Sure, but the majority of post-CPI volume suggests the data was largely taken in stride.
Highest Yields in 10 Months But Not Because of CPI
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, May 12 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 3:15AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 6:00AM | Apr NFIB Business Optimism Index | Apr | 95.9 | 96.1 | 95.8 |
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 33.0K | 39.25K | ||
| 8:30AM | Apr m/m Headline CPI (%) | Apr | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| 8:30AM | Apr m/m CORE CPI (%) | Apr | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Apr y/y CORE CPI (%) | Apr | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| 8:30AM | Apr y/y Headline CPI (%) | Apr | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% |
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.615% | 3.630% | ||
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 42 | |||
| 1:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Apr Federal budget (bl) | Apr | $215B | $220B | $-164.1B |
| Wednesday, May 13 | |||||
| 7:00AM | May/08 MBA Refi Index | May/08 | 928.6 | ||
| 7:00AM | May/08 MBA Purchase Index | May/08 | 171.1 | ||
| 7:00AM | May/08 Mortgage Market Index | May/08 | 285.3 | ||
| 8:30AM | Apr PPI y/y | Apr | 4.9% | 4% | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Core PPI m/m (%) | Apr | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Core PPI y/y (%) | Apr | 4.3% | 3.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Apr PPI m/m (%) | Apr | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 10:30AM | May/08 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | May/08 | -1.6M | -2.314M | |
| 11:30AM | Fed Collins Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.876% | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 25 | |||
| 1:15PM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 7:00PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
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