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PPI Hit Even Harder Than CPI, But Damage is Minimal
PPI Hit Even Harder Than CPI, But Damage is Minimal
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is much more volatile and, on average, much less of a market mover than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but occasionally, it swings for the fences. Today's release is a clear example with the monthly headline coming in at 1.5 vs 0.5 forecast. In annual terms, headline inflation is a whopping 6.0% versus a 4.9% forecast--up sharply from last month's 4.3% (itself upwardly revised from 4.0%). This is easily the most onerous spike since the pandemic. Even though PPI hit the market harder than CPI, that's not saying much. Bonds are only 2bps weaker at 10am ET--a testament to how little this data tends to matter.
Highest Yields in 10 Months But Not Because of CPI
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, May 13 | |||||
| 7:00AM | May/08 MBA Refi Index | May/08 | 921.1 | 928.6 | |
| 7:00AM | May/08 MBA Purchase Index | May/08 | 177.7 | 171.1 | |
| 7:00AM | May/08 Mortgage Market Index | May/08 | 290.1 | 285.3 | |
| 8:30AM | Apr PPI y/y | Apr | 6% | 4.9% | 4% |
| 8:30AM | Apr Core PPI m/m (%) | Apr | 1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Apr Core PPI y/y (%) | Apr | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% |
| 8:30AM | Apr PPI m/m (%) | Apr | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 10:30AM | May/08 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | May/08 | -4.306M | -2.10M | -2.314M |
| 11:30AM | Fed Collins Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.876% | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 25 | |||
| 1:15PM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 7:00PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| Thursday, May 14 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr Import prices mm (%) | Apr | 1.0% | 0.8% | |
| 8:30AM | May/09 Jobless Claims (k) | May/09 | 205K | 200K | |
| 8:30AM | May/02 Continued Claims (k) | May/02 | 1790K | 1766K | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Apr | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Retail Sales (%) | Apr | 0.5% | 1.7% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Business Inventories (% ) | Mar | 0.8% | 0.4% | |
| 1:00PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 5:45PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 7:00PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
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