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Stronger Start. Ho Hum Data
Stronger Start. Ho Hum Data
A recovery toward lower oil prices paved the way for the bond market to recover yesterday morning's weakness and the same theme continued in the overnight session. 8:30am econ data represented a modest risk of volatility, but with Jobless Claims slightly higher and Retail Sales right on target, there was almost no detectable trading response. With that, we head into the rest of the session with markets on the lookout for any meaningful war-related headlines. More than a few hot takes are expecting the Trump/Xi meeting to yield some sort of breakthrough with respect to the war, but it's probably best to be pleasantly surprised if it happens (rather than actually planning on it happening).
MBS Fully Recover After Initial Reaction to Inflation Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, May 14 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr Import prices mm (%) | Apr | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| 8:30AM | May/09 Jobless Claims (k) | May/09 | 211K | 205K | 200K |
| 8:30AM | May/02 Continued Claims (k) | May/02 | 1782K | 1790K | 1766K |
| 8:30AM | Apr Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Apr | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| 8:30AM | Apr Retail Sales (%) | Apr | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.7% |
| 10:00AM | Mar Business Inventories (% ) | Mar | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| 10:15AM | Fed Schmid Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 5:45PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 7:00PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| Friday, May 15 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | May NY Fed Manufacturing | May | 7.5 | 11.00 | |
| 9:15AM | Apr Industrial Production (%) | Apr | 0.3% | -0.5% | |
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
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