Early Gains And Losses on Conflicting War Headlines

Early Gains And Losses on Conflicting War Headlines

Bonds began the overnight session by drifting somewhat higher in yield. The 10yr hit 4.63 before recovering modestly just before domestic trading began. Yields were still slightly higher at 7:30am but moved lower after headlines cited rumors that the U.S. agreed to lift Iran's oil sanctions. Subsequent headlines cited a revised counter-proposal from Iran in which it would accept a long-term freeze of its nuclear program in exchange for a truce and gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Bonds rallied on both those newswires with 10s making it below 4.57. They're since reversed course on a 3rd set of newswires citing Iran's negotiators as saying U.S. demand remain excessive despite the changes in the draft proposal.

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Bonds Continued Drifting Weaker Throughout The Day

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0
97.30
-0.10 
10YR TREASURY
4.599
+0.007 
5/18/2026 1:44PM EST
MBS are now down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and more than a quarter point form some early lenders' rate sheet print times. Any lender who initially priced before 10:30am is increasingly likely to be considering a negative reprice.   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.68%
+0.03% 
15YR Fixed
6.12%
+0.02% 
5/18/2026
Mortgage rates hit their highest levels in more than 9 months at the end of last week. Now today, they've edged slightly higher yet again with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at 6.68% versus 6.65% on Friday. This wasn't necessarily destined to be the case today. In fact the day began with the average lender unchanged. But the underlying market remains highly attuned to breaking news on the Iran war. Earlier in the day, that news was helpful for rates as it spoke to ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, May 18
8:30AM Fed Venable Speech
10:00AM May NAHB housing market indx May 37 35 34
Tuesday, May 19
12:00AM Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 33.0K
9:00AM Fed Waller Speech
10:00AM Apr Pending Home Sales (%) Apr 1.3% 1.5%
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.615%
7:00PM Fed Paulson Speech
7:30PM Fed Venable Speech