Flat Overnight And Slow Start
Flat Overnight And Slow Start
Bonds were flat overnight for a change, with just a bit of 2-way volatility but no notable directional movement. Without any new or interesting war-related headlines, what else can we even discuss in May, 2026? There's some econ data in the form of the highest Chicago PMI reading since 2022. At 62.7 vs a 50.5 forecast, it absolutely obliterated expectations, but even that was worth less than 1bp of weakness in 10yr yields. Both MBS and Treasuries remain close enough to unchanged levels as we head into the 10am ET trading hour.
Spoiler Alert. Yes, It's War Headlines
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, May 29 | |||||
| 2:00AM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 6:25AM | Fed Schmid Speech | ||||
| 9:10AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 9:15AM | Fed Paulson Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | May Chicago PMI | May | 62.7 | 50.5 | 49.2 |
| 12:40PM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
| Monday, Jun 01 | |||||
| 9:45AM | May S&P Global Manuf. PMI | May | 55.3 | 54.5 | |
| 10:00AM | May ISM Mfg Prices Paid | May | 85.3 | 84.6 | |
| 10:00AM | May ISM Manufacturing PMI | May | 52.6 | 52.7 | |
| 10:00AM | May ISM Manufacturing Employment | May | 46.4 | ||
| 10:00AM | Apr Construction spending (%) | Apr | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
