Weaker Start as War News Cycle Shifts

Weaker Start as War News Cycle Shifts

Last week's focus for war-related headlines involved various attempts to hone in on just how close we were to a confirmed preliminary peace deal. The results were predictable with bonds moving to their lowest yields in weeks. The shoe is very much on the other foot to start the new week with headlines saying Iran is pulling out of peace talks until the Israel/Lebanon fighting ends. In addition, the IRGC is said to be taking control of diplomacy and threatening to re-block the strait. With that, 10yr yields jumped back up near the highest levels in over a week and MBS dropped a quick 3/8ths of a point.

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Markets Skeptical of Today's Peace Deal News

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0
98.40
-0.06 
10YR TREASURY
4.446
+0.007 
6/1/2026 8:49AM EST
Full coverage of reasons is in the AM commentary . MBS are now down 3/8ths of a point on the day and 10 ticks (.31) from intraday highs. 10s are up 6bps at 4.497.   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.56%
-0.03% 
15YR Fixed
6.09%
-0.02% 
5/29/2026
While there are still a few hours left in the trading day, it's a near certainty that this week will end with mortgage rates at meaningfully lower levels compared to last Friday. Today is only adding modestly to that trend, but that makes it the 8th straight business day where rates have either held steady or moved lower. On that note, it's possibly worth considering that these sorts of winning streaks have definite life spans. We've certainly seen stretches of more than ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Jun 01
9:45AM May S&P Global Manuf. PMI May 55.1 55.3 54.5
10:00AM May ISM Mfg Prices Paid May 82.1 85.5 84.6
10:00AM May ISM Manufacturing PMI May 54.0 53 52.7
10:00AM May ISM Manufacturing Employment May 48.6 46.4
10:00AM Apr Construction spending (%) Apr 0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
Tuesday, Jun 02
1:50AM Fed Kashkari Speech
8:30AM Fed Hammack Speech
10:00AM Apr JOLTs Job Quits (ml) Apr 3.171M
10:00AM Apr USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) Apr 6.82M 6.866M
10:10AM Jun IBD economic optimism Jun 42.6
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.620%