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Weaker Start on Renewed Bombing, But Still In The Range
Weaker Start on Renewed Bombing, But Still In The Range
Iran launched missiles at several U.S. allies yesterday afternoon and oil prices responded accordingly with a move back up to May 22nd levels. Treasury yields followed, but have generally been staying lower than the oil price correlation would suggest. 10yr yields continue holding a narrow range between 4.43 and 4.52. They're roughly 3.5bps higher to start the day at 4.485 and MBS are down a quarter point. ADP employment came out almost right on the screws and garnered no notable bond market response. At 10am ET, we'll get ISM Services, which is one of this week's few reports that might have enough of an impact to influence intraday bond market volatility that is otherwise taking most of its cues from the war.
Uncommonly Uneventful Day
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jun 03 | |||||
| 2:00AM | May Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | May | 16.1M | 16M | 15.9M |
| 7:00AM | May/29 MBA Purchase Index | May/29 | 164.8 | 169.7 | |
| 7:00AM | May/29 Mortgage Market Index | May/29 | 252.8 | 259.4 | |
| 7:00AM | May/29 MBA Refi Index | May/29 | 736.2 | 753.7 | |
| 8:15AM | May ADP jobs (k) | May | 122K | 117K | 109K |
| 9:00AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | May S&P Global Composite PMI | May | 51.5 | 51.7 | 51.7 |
| 9:45AM | May S&P Global Services PMI | May | 50.7 | 50.9 | 51.0 |
| 10:00AM | May ISM Services New Orders | May | 57.3 | 53.5 | |
| 10:00AM | May ISM N-Mfg PMI | May | 54.5 | 53.8 | 53.6 |
| 10:00AM | May ISM Services Employment | May | 47.9 | 48.0 | |
| 10:00AM | May ISM Biz Activity | May | 57.7 | 55.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr Factory orders mm (%) | Apr | 4.8% | 4.6% | 1.5% |
| 10:00AM | May ISM Services Prices | May | 71.3 | 70.7 | |
| 10:30AM | May/29 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | May/29 | -7.974M | -4M | -3.327M |
| 11:00AM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| 4:00PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| Thursday, Jun 04 | |||||
| 5:30AM | May Challenger layoffs (k) | May | 83.387K | ||
| 8:30AM | May/30 Jobless Claims (k) | May/30 | 213K | 215K | |
| 8:30AM | May/23 Continued Claims (k) | May/23 | 1780K | 1786K | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final | Q1 | 2.5% | 4.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $6.576 billion | |||
| 1:10PM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
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