Minimal Change After Overnight Volatility
Minimal Change After Overnight Volatility
War headlines struck back in the overnight session. Specifically, Iran struck back against various U.S. and allied sites, allegedly in response to U.S. strikes on Iranian sites. Peace prospects take an obvious hit in response to these escalations and financial markets remain willing to react accordingly. Oil prices were already moving up to the highest levels in more than a week in the overnight session and that momentum peaked at 6am ET. Treasury yields followed and then stayed broadly sideways for the duration of the domestic session. In the bigger picture, 10s are well within the 4.43-4.51 range that dominated last week. War headline sensitivity continues accounting for 90% of forward-looking volatility risk while econ data rounds out the rest.
Minimal Change After Overnight Volatility
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jun 03 | |||||
| 2:00AM | May Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | May | 16.1M | 16M | 15.9M |
| 7:00AM | May/29 MBA Purchase Index | May/29 | 164.8 | 169.7 | |
| 7:00AM | May/29 Mortgage Market Index | May/29 | 252.8 | 259.4 | |
| 7:00AM | May/29 MBA Refi Index | May/29 | 736.2 | 753.7 | |
| 8:15AM | May ADP jobs (k) | May | 122K | 117K | 109K |
| 9:00AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | May S&P Global Composite PMI | May | 51.5 | 51.7 | 51.7 |
| 9:45AM | May S&P Global Services PMI | May | 50.7 | 50.9 | 51.0 |
| 10:00AM | May ISM Services New Orders | May | 57.3 | 53.5 | |
| 10:00AM | May ISM N-Mfg PMI | May | 54.5 | 53.8 | 53.6 |
| 10:00AM | May ISM Services Employment | May | 47.9 | 48.0 | |
| 10:00AM | May ISM Biz Activity | May | 57.7 | 55.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr Factory orders mm (%) | Apr | 4.8% | 4.6% | 1.5% |
| 10:00AM | May ISM Services Prices | May | 71.3 | 70.7 | |
| 10:30AM | May/29 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | May/29 | -7.974M | -4M | -3.327M |
| 11:00AM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| 4:00PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| Thursday, Jun 04 | |||||
| 5:30AM | May Challenger layoffs (k) | May | 83.387K | ||
| 8:30AM | May/30 Jobless Claims (k) | May/30 | 213K | 215K | |
| 8:30AM | May/23 Continued Claims (k) | May/23 | 1780K | 1786K | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final | Q1 | 2.5% | 4.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $6.576 billion | |||
| 1:10PM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
