Another Decent Start, But Will it Last?

Another Decent Start, But Will it Last?

For the second day in a row , bonds are starting out in modestly stronger territory, but let's hope we don't repeat yesterday's performance. That left yields even higher at the close than they were on Friday afternoon. Today's overnight gains leave yields in similar territory to yesterday morning. One redeeming technical development is that yields were willing to move below yesterday's pivot point point at 4.543. This doesn't necessarily mean anything, but it's better than a sharp stick in the eye. With limited econ data, we wait for any relevant war-related developments and, secondarily, concessionary or reactive tradeflows surrounding Treasury auctions.

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Bonds Fade in Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0
97.68
+0.08 
10YR TREASURY
4.528
-0.036 
6/9/2026 1:24PM EST
MBS are now down an eighth of a point from the AM highs. Because those highs coincided with many lenders' rate sheet print times, the jumpier lenders could technically be considering negative reprices.  10yr yields are still down 1.1bps on the day at 4.552, but that's the highest level of the day and just over 2bps above the best levels.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.68%
+0.00% 
15YR Fixed
6.20%
+0.00% 
6/9/2026
The average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate rose 0.08% last Friday after the jobs report came in much stronger than expected. Today added another 0.02% of upward movement. Today's level of 6.68% is the 3rd highest of the past 9 months. Unlike Friday, there were no big-ticket economic reports driving volatility in rate markets. The only arguable cause and effect was seen earlier in the morning surrounding war-related headlines. These actually helped rates start the day low...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jun 09
6:00AM May NFIB Business Optimism Index May 95.3 96.0 95.9
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 29K 35.75K
8:30AM Apr Trade Gap (bl) Apr $-55.9B $-56.1B $-60.3B
9:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) $3.288 billion
10:00AM May Exist. home sales % chg (%) May 3.2% 0.2%
10:00AM May Existing home sales (ml) May 4.17M 4.07M 4.02M
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.600% 3.625%
12:00PM EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (%)
1:00PM 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 58
Wednesday, Jun 10
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 30YR
7:00AM Jun/05 Mortgage Market Index Jun/05 252.8
7:00AM Jun/05 MBA Refi Index Jun/05 736.2
7:00AM Jun/05 MBA Purchase Index Jun/05 164.8
8:30AM May y/y Headline CPI (%) May 4.2% 3.8%
8:30AM May m/m Headline CPI (%) May 0.5% 0.6%
8:30AM May y/y CORE CPI (%) May 2.9% 2.8%
8:30AM May m/m CORE CPI (%) May 0.3% 0.4%
10:30AM Jun/05 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Jun/05 -5.1M -7.974M
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 39
2:00PM May Federal budget (bl) May $-275M $215B