To Whammie or Not to Whammie, That is Our Friday (And Weekend)

To Whammie or Not to Whammie, That is Our Friday (And Weekend)

Bonds were sideways at first in the overnight session. Then they improved moderately after newswires from Iran's Mehr news agency detailing some specifics of the peace deal, including the U.S. withdrawing forces from the area. Bonds then began selling as various push-back headlines popped up. Deal not completely confirmed. No location determined. Deal still under review. No signing day confirmed. etc...

With nothing meaty on the calendar and no final signing even rumored to be in the cards until next week, we'll at least the next 3 days waiting for any legitimate rejection of the peace deal claims. So far, Iran's responses have fallen short of previous rejections. Therefore, the market is pretty sure we're close, and most of yesterday's gains are intact.

Latest Video Analysis

Big Rally After Peace Deal News

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0
98.04
-0.09 
10YR TREASURY
4.476
+0.008 
6/12/2026 12:14PM EST
From Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi: The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding has never been closer. Pending its finalization, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content. In line with our responsible and transparent approach, all details will be shared with the public in due course. Bounds bouncing back on that. 10yr nearly unchanged and MBS now down only 3 ticks (.09) on the day vs a quarter point before the news.   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.58%
-0.02% 
15YR Fixed
6.14%
-0.01% 
6/12/2026
Mortgage rates began the day in uneventful fashion with the average lender right in line with yesterday's latest levels. Things might have gotten off to a slightly better start, but higher inflation in this morning's econ data and discouraging war-related headlines put upward pressure on bond yields (yields and rates are technically the same thing and they move in the same direction). The bulk of the day remained uneventful but that changed abruptly at 1:30pm when news cir...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jun 12
10:00AM Jun Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Jun 4.6% 4.8%
10:00AM Jun U Mich conditions Jun 48.4 46.2 45.8
10:00AM Jun Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Jun 3.4% 3.9%
10:00AM Jun Consumer Sentiment (ip) Jun 48.9 46 44.8
Monday, Jun 15
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR
8:30AM Jun NY Fed Manufacturing Jun 19.60
9:15AM May Industrial Production (%) May 0.2% 0.7%
10:00AM Jun NAHB housing market indx Jun 37 37
12:00PM NOPA Crush Report (%)