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Decent Gains, But Some Signs of Resistance
Decent Gains, But Some Signs of Resistance
Bonds improved overnight at the start of European trading and made additional gains in concert with lower oil prices during the domestic session. Notably, the gains met resistance at 4.42%--a resistance level that's been on our radar since the last bounce a few weeks ago. Technical levels certainly don't predict the future, but they can provide a framework for measuring the pace of change in trading levels. If bonds are weaker in the morning, it would act as confirmation that the initial response to the Iran peace deal has played out. In addition, there's potential volatility surrounding the Fed announcement, almost exclusively reserved for feeling out any visible shifts from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
Decent Gains, But Some Signs of Resistance
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jun 17 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jun/12 Mortgage Market Index | Jun/12 | 280.1 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jun/12 MBA Purchase Index | Jun/12 | 176.9 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jun/12 MBA Refi Index | Jun/12 | 848.7 | ||
| 8:30AM | May Retail Sales Control Group MoM | May | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 8:30AM | May Retail Sales (%) | May | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Apr Business Inventories (% ) | Apr | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 10:00AM | May Pending Home Sales (%) | May | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/12 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jun/12 | -4.5M | -7.228M | |
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Longer | 3.1% | |||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Economic Projections | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75% | 3.75% | ||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr | 3.1% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Current | 3.4% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr | 3.1% | |||
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
| Thursday, Jun 18 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Jun/06 Continued Claims (k) | Jun/06 | 1800K | 1795K | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Philly Fed Business Index | Jun | 10 | -0.4 | |
| 8:30AM | Jun/13 Jobless Claims (k) | Jun/13 | 225K | 229K | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Philly Fed Prices Paid | Jun | 47.90 | ||
| 10:00AM | May CB Leading Index MoM (%) | May | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 24 | |||
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