Sideways Start, Quiet Calendar, Quarter-End Volatility Potential

Sideways Start, Quiet Calendar, Quarter-End Volatility Potential

Q2 has been one of the best quarters for stocks going all the way back to the dot com boom, even after the 4-5% pullback in June. This has created a massive quarter-end rebalancing need among money managers and we've seen that random volatility play out in both stocks and bonds over the past few weeks. As the quarter wraps up in the next 3 business days, this could continue to drive volatility, but hopefully/probably less than it did earlier this week. Bonds are starting out roughly unchanged and have little else to focus on thanks to an uneventful economic calendar.

Latest Video Analysis

Mostly Holding Yesterday's Big Gains

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0
98.58
-0.01 
10YR TREASURY
4.400
+0.008 
6/26/2026 9:24AM EST
Q2 has been one of the best quarters for stocks going all the way back to the dot com boom, even after the 4-5% pullback in June. This has created a massive quarter-end rebalancing need among money managers and we've seen that random volatility play out in both stocks and bonds over the past few weeks. As the quarter wraps up in the next 3 business days, this could continue to drive volatility, but hopefully/probably less than it did earlier this week. Bonds are starting out ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.53%
+0.00% 
15YR Fixed
6.12%
+0.00% 
6/26/2026
Mortgage rates had a great day yesterday, moving within 0.01% of the lowest levels in more than a month. They dropped just a bit more today and are now officially the lowest they've been since May 14th.  Today's improvement was more of an afterthought, but nonetheless helps legitimize yesterday's heavy lifting as something other than a freak coincidence. The only word of caution is that the last few weeks of any given quarter can see elevated volatility in a random pa...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jun 26
10:00AM Jun U Mich conditions Jun 47.7 48.9 45.8
10:00AM Jun Consumer Sentiment (ip) Jun 49.5 50 44.8
10:00AM Jun Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Jun 3.3% 3.4% 3.9%
10:00AM Jun Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Jun 4.6% 4.6% 4.8%
10:30AM Fed Williams Speech
11:30AM Fed Kashkari Speech
Monday, Jun 29