Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here

Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here

Monday made it clear that traders are playing by the typical summertime, holiday week rules which often see the first day of the week result in very low volume and volatility. While participation should remain lighter than normal, that's no guaranty of an ongoing absence of volatility. Even if there are fewer traders in the room, they can still move markets if econ data or Fed-speak (Warsh is on the calendar for Wednesday) bring any surprises. We're also interested to see if there are visible shifts that transcend data/news based on the recently outsized role of quarter-end rebalancing trades.

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Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0
98.69
+0.05 
10YR TREASURY
4.363
-0.012 
6/30/2026 4:29AM EST
At the risk of jinxing it, Monday is pretty much already in the back as an uneventful start to a holiday-shortened week (early close on Thursday and fully closed on Friday). Bonds were very flat overnight and are near unchanged levels in the first few hours. Unchanged is good in this case as it means we're holding in a friendlier trading range under the 4.42% technical level in 10yr yields. Today is the only data-free day of the week and the next 3 are action-packed by compar...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.52%
-0.01% 
15YR Fixed
6.12%
+0.00% 
6/29/2026
Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest level since May 14th. Most of the recent drop happened last Wednesday, but each day since then has added a microscopic improvement. Today was no exception with the 30yr fixed rate index falling a mere 0.01%--the lowest increment we measure. The calendar of economic events was completely empty and consequential news headlines were just as scarce. This will change over the next 3 days on at least one front. Big-ticket econ data co...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jun 30
9:00AM Apr FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) Apr 1.7%
9:00AM Apr Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) Apr 0.9% 0.8%
9:00AM Apr CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) Apr 1%
9:00AM Apr FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) Apr 0.2% 0.1%
9:45AM Jun Chicago PMI Jun 58.1 62.7
10:00AM May JOLTs Job Quits (ml) May 2.977M
10:00AM May USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) May 7.30M 7.618M
10:00AM Jun CB Consumer Confidence (%) Jun 94.7 93.1
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.620%
Wednesday, Jul 01
5:30AM Jun Challenger layoffs (k) Jun 97.006K
7:00AM Jun/26 MBA Purchase Index Jun/26 169.7
7:00AM Jun/26 MBA Refi Index Jun/26 834.2
7:00AM Jun/26 Mortgage Market Index Jun/26 272.1
8:15AM Jun ADP jobs (k) Jun 113K 122K
9:00AM Fed Chair Warsh Speech
9:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) $6.637 billion
9:45AM Jun S&P Global Manuf. PMI Jun 55.7 55.1
10:00AM Jun ISM Mfg Prices Paid Jun 79 82.1
10:00AM Jun ISM Manufacturing PMI Jun 54 54.0
10:00AM Jun ISM Manufacturing Employment Jun 48.6
10:00AM May Construction spending (%) May 0.2% 0.4%
10:30AM Jun/26 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Jun/26 -4.8M -6.088M