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Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling
Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling
The past 2 days have been rough for the bond market--nothing catastrophic, but "brisk" in terms of unexpected selling pressure. To be fair, buying/selling pressure is never truly expected (otherwise, why wait to trade it?), and higher volatility was definitely a risk surrounding quarter-end and the data calendar. Today could have been worse, but the market found some solace in this morning's Warsh comments the ECB SINTRA conference. Warsh stuck to the "no forward guidance" script but managed to offer some in a roundabout way by saying inflation risks have come down and that he was open to different views on the Fed's balance sheet size. While not true forward guidance, it was a net-dovish message that the market reacted to. Shorter-term debt did best, but 10yr yields are ending up about 2bps lower than they were before Warsh.
Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jul 01 | |||||
| 5:30AM | Jun Challenger layoffs (k) | Jun | 45.849K | 97.006K | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/26 MBA Purchase Index | Jun/26 | 170.6 | 169.7 | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/26 MBA Refi Index | Jun/26 | 828.7 | 834.2 | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/26 Mortgage Market Index | Jun/26 | 272.2 | 272.1 | |
| 8:15AM | Jun ADP jobs (k) | Jun | 98K | 113K | 122K |
| 9:00AM | Fed Chair Warsh Speech | ||||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $6.637 billion | |||
| 9:45AM | Jun S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Jun | 53.9 | 55.7 | 55.1 |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Manufacturing Employment | Jun | 49.7 | 48.6 | |
| 10:00AM | May Construction spending (%) | May | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Jun | 73.0 | 79 | 82.1 |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Manufacturing PMI | Jun | 53.3 | 54 | 54.0 |
| 10:30AM | Jun/26 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jun/26 | -3.775M | -5.1M | -6.088M |
| Thursday, Jul 02 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jun/20 Continued Claims (k) | Jun/20 | 1810K | 1821K | |
| 8:30AM | Jun/27 Jobless Claims (k) | Jun/27 | 220K | 215K | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Participation Rate | Jun | 61.8% | ||
| 8:30AM | Jun Average earnings mm (%) | Jun | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Jun | 110K | 172K | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Unemployment rate mm (%) | Jun | 4.3% | 4.3% | |
| 10:00AM | May Factory orders mm (%) | May | -1.8% | 4.8% | |
| 2:00PM | Jun Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Jun | 16.0M | 16.1M | |
| 2:00PM | Happy 4th!! | ||||
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