Hormuz Back in The News

Hormuz Back in The News

Iran has attacked a few cargo ships recently and there are repercussions. The peace deal looks to be on shakier ground over the past 24 hours with both sides talking tough on the internet. Just before 3pm, the U.S. referred to Iran's actions as unacceptable and revoked the license that allowed the sale of Iranian oil. Oil prices were higher all day, but especially after that news. Bond yields have been quick to reconnect with their old flame, exhibiting strong correlation over the past 24 hours. The net effect by 3:10pm was a 6.6bp rise in 10yr yields (4.536) and nearly a half point drop in MBS.

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Hormuz Back in The News

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0
97.89
-0.44 
10YR TREASURY
4.537
+0.067 
7/7/2026 3:09PM EST
*US IS REVOKING IRAN-RELATED GENERAL LICENSE TO EXPORT OIL *IRAN'S ACTIONS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ WHOLLY UNACCEPTABLE: OFFICIAL Following these newswires, oil prices went even higher and bond yields have been highly correlated today. 10yr yields are now up 6bps at 4.531. MBS are down 3/8ths on the day and a quarter point from many lenders' rate sheet print times.  Negative reprices are now a stronger possibility compared to earlier in the day.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.63%
+0.04% 
15YR Fixed
6.17%
+0.01% 
7/7/2026
It's been a while since oil prices were the focal point of the interest rate conversation, but that recently familiar dynamic is once again playing out. The U.S./Iran peace deal is on increasingly shaky ground and the ability for oil to flow through the Strait of Hormuz has been increasingly compromised over the past 24 hours. Most recently, headlines suggest the U.S. is withdrawing authorization for Iran to export oil after Iran's recent attacks on cargo vessels. Rising oi...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jul 07
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 21.0K 30.75K
8:30AM May Trade Gap (bl) May $-77.6B $-78.5B $-55.9B
9:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) $3.319 billion
10:00AM Jul IBD economic optimism Jul 45.5 45 42.5
11:00AM Jun Consumer Inflation Expectations Jun 3.7% 3.5%
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.635% 3.655%
1:00PM 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 58
Wednesday, Jul 08
7:00AM Jul/03 Mortgage Market Index Jul/03 272.2
7:00AM Jul/03 MBA Refi Index Jul/03 828.7
7:00AM Jul/03 MBA Purchase Index Jul/03 170.6
10:30AM Jul/03 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Jul/03 -3.775M
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 39
2:00PM FOMC Minutes
3:00PM May Consumer credit (bl) May $17.1B $20.73B