Empty Calendar Leaves Focus on War Headlines

Empty Calendar Leaves Focus on War Headlines

The entire week has been a study in the rekindled love affair between bond yields and oil prices. The latter is fairly flat versus yesterday's latest levels, so it's no surprise to see bonds in the same position. Without anything of note on the econ calendar today, there's no reason to expect any catalyst to have more potential impact than war-related headlines and oil prices. That said, we've certainly seen bonds hesitate to follow oil prices lower at times. There's a faint whiff of that dislocation in early trading.

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Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0
97.70
+0.01 
10YR TREASURY
4.546
-0.008 
7/10/2026 7:54AM EST
Bonds are starting the day just a hair stronger versus yesterday's close and there are three ways to look at it. At the most basic level, the move is so small that it doesn't deserve any explanation (i.e. we're close enough to unchanged to say "nothing new is happening"). But given the recent resurgence of correlation between bonds and oil prices, that's probably today's warm bowl of porridge considering the almost 100% directional alignment overnight. Finally, the ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.65%
-0.03% 
15YR Fixed
6.20%
-0.02% 
7/9/2026
Mortgage rates were rapidly approaching 10-month highs as of yesterday afternoon. They managed a friendly bounce today, but it was fairly small with the average lender dropping 0.03% to 6.5% for a top-tier 30yr fixed scenario. One reason for caution is that the rate improvement looks to be dependent on oil price volatility after this week's resurgence in U.S./Iran tensions. Oil finally moved lower today. In general, lower oil prices imply lower inflation pressure, and lowe...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jul 10
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 30YR
Monday, Jul 13
5:25AM Fed Bowman Speech
12:30PM Fed Waller Speech
2:00PM Jun Federal budget (bl) Jun $-293B