Empty Calendar Leaves Focus on War Headlines

Empty Calendar Leaves Focus on War Headlines

The entire week has been a study in the rekindled love affair between bond yields and oil prices. The latter is fairly flat versus yesterday's latest levels, so it's no surprise to see bonds in the same position. Without anything of note on the econ calendar today, there's no reason to expect any catalyst to have more potential impact than war-related headlines and oil prices. That said, we've certainly seen bonds hesitate to follow oil prices lower at times. There's a faint whiff of that dislocation in early trading.

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Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0
97.57
-0.13 
10YR TREASURY
4.564
+0.010 
7/10/2026 1:24PM EST
MBS are now down an eighth of a point on the day and an eighth from the price plateau seen during many lenders' rate sheet print times.  As such, the jumpier lenders are now on the threshold of considering negative reprices.  10yr yields are up 1bp at 4.562. There is no specific news or data underlying the selling and the change is very small in the big picture.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.64%
-0.01% 
15YR Fixed
6.19%
-0.01% 
7/10/2026
Rates are based on bonds and bonds have been taking cues from oil prices this week. Oil was flat overnight, bringing bonds along for the sideways ride. As such, the average mortgage lender began the day almost perfectly in line with yesterday's latest levels.  All that having been said, bonds experienced some of their own weakness in the afternoon, independent from oil prices (which continued sideways to slightly lower). Some mortgage lenders may choose to raise rates ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jul 10
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 30YR
Monday, Jul 13
5:25AM Fed Bowman Speech
12:30PM Fed Waller Speech
2:00PM Jun Federal budget (bl) Jun $-293B