Strong Start After Sharply Lower CPI

Strong Start After Sharply Lower CPI

The Consumer Price Index came in FAR below expectations with a core reading of 0.0 vs 0.2 forecasts. In unrounded terms, it was -0.17%. Headline CPI was more sharply negative than expected at -0.4 vs a -0.1 forecast. Supercore (which excludes housing) was down -0.2 which is the first negative reading in over a year. Core goods also remained in negative territory for a second straight month. Bonds rallied instantly, led by the short end of the curve (more closely tied to Fed rate expectations). But even 10yr yields are down over 5bps and MBS are up more than 3/8ths of a point. 

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Oil and Waller Double Whammy

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5
99.78
+0.38 
10YR TREASURY
4.568
-0.048 
7/14/2026 10:04AM EST
The Consumer Price Index came in FAR below expectations with a core reading of 0.0 vs 0.2 forecasts. In unrounded terms, it was -0.17%. Headline CPI was more sharply negative than expected at -0.4 vs a -0.1 forecast. Supercore (which excludes housing) was down -0.2 which is the first negative reading in over a year. Core goods also remained in negative territory for a second straight month. Bonds rallied instantly, led by the short end of the curve (more closely tied to Fed r...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.70%
-0.05% 
15YR Fixed
6.20%
-0.01% 
7/14/2026
Interest rates are based on bonds. Because the bonds underlying the average mortgage are fixed rate, inflation is the enemy. Imagine you're an investor fronting the money for a fixed-rate mortgage. You know your schedule of payments from day one. Let's say the payment is $5 or enough to buy a dozen eggs.  Now let's say inflation raises the price of those eggs to $7. You're still only receiving $5 because you invested in a fixed-rate loan. Because of this dynamic,...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jul 14
6:00AM Jun NFIB Business Optimism Index Jun 97.4 95.8 95.3
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 19.75K 21.0K
8:30AM Jun y/y CORE CPI (%) Jun 2.6% 2.8% 2.9%
8:30AM Jun y/y Headline CPI (%) Jun 3.5% 3.8% 4.2%
8:30AM Jun m/m CORE CPI (%) Jun 0% 0.2% 0.2%
8:30AM Jun m/m Headline CPI (%) Jun -0.4% -0.1% 0.5%
10:00AM Fed Chair Warsh Testimony
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.640% 3.635%
12:40PM Fed Barr Speech
1:00PM Fed Goolsbee Speech
1:30PM Fed Cook Speech
2:55PM Fed Bowman Speech
Wednesday, Jul 15
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR
7:00AM Jul/10 Mortgage Market Index Jul/10 266.3
7:00AM Jul/10 MBA Refi Index Jul/10 794.4
7:00AM Jul/10 MBA Purchase Index Jul/10 169.5
8:30AM Jun PPI m/m (%) Jun 0% 1.1%
8:30AM Jun PPI y/y Jun 6.2% 6.5%
8:30AM Jul NY Fed Manufacturing Jul 8.8 5.70
8:30AM Jun Core PPI y/y (%) Jun 5.2% 4.9%
8:30AM Jun Core PPI m/m (%) Jun 0.4% 0.4%
8:45AM Fed Williams Speech
10:00AM Fed Chair Warsh Testimony
10:30AM Jul/10 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Jul/10 2.998M
12:00PM NOPA Crush Report (%)
1:00PM Fed Cook Speech
2:00PM Fed Beige Book
6:30PM Fed Musalem Speech