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Wednesday's Gains Had More Staying Power Than Tuesday's
Wednesday's Gains Had More Staying Power Than Tuesday's
Both Tuesday's CPI and Wednesday's PPI came in much lower than expected. Both resulted in fairly big bond rallies. Whereas Tuesday's rally faded gradually after the initial pop, Wednesday's rally continued at a moderate pace as the day progressed. The only trade off was that the initial pop was a bit smaller. The net effect is that yields fell to the same levels seen in the few minutes following Tuesday's CPI. In that sense, the rally implies clear resistance at a 10yr yield level of 4.54%. From a strategic standpoint, rate watchers must consider that the data driving the rally benefited from June's lower fuel prices and that this dynamic has shifted back toward higher prices in July. With that in mind, the bond market's willingness to rally is actually rather impressive.
Wednesday's Gains Had More Staying Power
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jul 15 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Jul/10 Mortgage Market Index | Jul/10 | 259.1 | 266.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Jul/10 MBA Refi Index | Jul/10 | 821.9 | 794.4 | |
| 7:00AM | Jul/10 MBA Purchase Index | Jul/10 | 157.2 | 169.5 | |
| 8:30AM | Jun PPI m/m (%) | Jun | -0.3% | 0% | 1.1% |
| 8:30AM | Jun PPI y/y | Jun | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% |
| 8:30AM | Jul NY Fed Manufacturing | Jul | 15.60 | 8.8 | 5.70 |
| 8:30AM | Jun Core PPI y/y (%) | Jun | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% |
| 8:30AM | Jun Core PPI m/m (%) | Jun | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 8:45AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Fed Chair Warsh Testimony | ||||
| 10:30AM | Jul/10 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jul/10 | -1.693M | -2.6M | 2.998M |
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| 6:30PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| Thursday, Jul 16 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jul/11 Jobless Claims (k) | Jul/11 | 217K | 215K | |
| 8:30AM | Jul/04 Continued Claims (k) | Jul/04 | 1820K | 1814K | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Prices Paid | Jul | 53.20 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Business Index | Jul | 13 | 10.3 | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Retail Sales (%) | Jun | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Jun | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 10:00AM | Jul NAHB housing market indx | Jul | 35 | 35 | |
| 10:00AM | May Business Inventories (% ) | May | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Jun Pending Home Sales (%) | Jun | -0.5% | 3.8% | |
| 12:30PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| 7:00PM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
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