Ultimately Uneventful Despite Modest Weakness
Ultimately Uneventful Despite Modest Weakness
Bonds lost ground modestly today with the ultimate damage being roughly an eighth of a point for MBS and less than a bp for 10yr yields. The selling was led by the short end of the curve (i.e. 2yr yields were up 1.5bps). There wasn't any obvious catalyst apart from an ongoing surge in fuel prices. Perhaps most notably, fuel futures peaked at the same time as bond yields and both declined together after that. We're also not bothered by the short end leading the selling considering how resoundingly it led the rally over the past 2 days. Bottom line: this feels like incidental consolidation after a solid 2-day rally and not something that's indicative of new momentum.
Ultimately Uneventful Despite Modest Weakness
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Jul 16 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jul/11 Jobless Claims (k) | Jul/11 | 208K | 217K | 215K |
| 8:30AM | Jul/04 Continued Claims (k) | Jul/04 | 1805K | 1820K | 1814K |
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Prices Paid | Jul | 53.90 | 53.20 | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Business Index | Jul | 41.4 | 13 | 10.3 |
| 8:30AM | Jun Retail Sales (%) | Jun | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.9% |
| 8:30AM | Jun Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Jun | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% |
| 10:00AM | Jul NAHB housing market indx | Jul | 34 | 35 | 35 |
| 10:00AM | May Business Inventories (% ) | May | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 10:00AM | Jun Pending Home Sales (%) | Jun | -5.4% | -0.5% | 3.8% |
| 12:30PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| 7:00PM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| Friday, Jul 17 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Jun Housing starts number mm (ml) | Jun | 1.31M | 1.177M | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Import prices mm (%) | Jun | -0.7% | 1.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Building Permits (ml) | Jun | 1.40M | 1.41M | |
| 9:15AM | Jun Industrial Production (%) | Jun | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Jul Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Jul | 4.6% | ||
| 10:00AM | Jul Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Jul | 3.3% | ||
| 10:00AM | Jul Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Jul | 51 | 49.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Jul U Mich conditions | Jul | 48.7 | 47.7 | |
