New Week. Same Old Story

New Week. Same Old Story

While we certainly CAN put short term market movement under a microscope and entertain various potential sources of motivation, it's just as good to take a few giant steps back and observe the bigger picture trend. When we do, we see a decisively weaker trend since October 2025 with additional volatility and selling pressure after the start of the Iran war. Unsurprisingly resurgence of hostilities has put upward pressure on both fuel prices and bond yields. This is definitely one of those "under the microscope" market movers at the start of the week. There were also some tradeflow considerations regardless of news headlines. This was seen in the form of both stocks and bonds noticeably shifting just after 9:30am. Until that point, stocks were improving and bonds were doing a decent job holding sideways. Afterward, both lost ground.

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New Week. Same Old Story

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5
99.65
0.00 
10YR TREASURY
4.587
-0.007 
7/21/2026 3:10AM EST
MBS are down just under a quarter point on the day and 6 ticks (.19) from some early lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, the jumpier lenders could already be considering negative reprices.  10yr yields are up 4.7bps to 4.593--the weakest level of the day.  There are no specific, new motivations for the selling--just a gradual trend throughout the AM hours so far.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.71%
+0.08% 
15YR Fixed
6.18%
+0.02% 
7/20/2026
Last week ended on a promising note with Friday's rates falling just barely below the previous Friday's levels. This was a relief after the top-tier 30yr fixed rate matched 11-month highs for the average lender earlier in the week. Unfortunately, rates are starting the new week by heading back toward those highs. Our 30yr fixed rate index is up from 6.63% on Friday to 6.71% today. Many lenders raised rates in the middle of the day in response to weakness in the bond marke...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jul 21
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 16.5K 19.75K
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.640%
Wednesday, Jul 22
7:00AM Jul/17 Mortgage Market Index Jul/17 259.1
7:00AM Jul/17 MBA Refi Index Jul/17 821.9
7:00AM Jul/17 MBA Purchase Index Jul/17 157.2
9:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) $3.453 billion
10:30AM Jul/17 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Jul/17 -1.5M -1.693M
1:00PM 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 13