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Compared to Oil, Yields Not Quite as Willing to Drop
Compared to Oil, Yields Not Quite as Willing to Drop
While the moment-to-moment correlation between bond yields and oil prices remained almost perfectly intact today, yields were less willing to follow the bigger drops. In other words, if we benchmark bonds to oil price movement, they underperformed the drop in oil prices. $139 billion in Treasury auctions and defensive positioning ahead of Wednesday's Fed announcement likely both contributed to that underperformance. Bottom line: it's encouraging to see the willingness to follow oil, but we won't be able to see more unrestrained trading until after Wednesday afternoon.
Bond Yields Underperformed The Oil Price Drop
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Jul 28 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 16.5K | |||
| 9:00AM | May CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | May | 1% | ||
| 9:00AM | May FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | May | 0.1% | -0.1% | |
| 9:00AM | May Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | May | 1.3% | 1.1% | |
| 9:00AM | May FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | May | 2% | ||
| 10:00AM | Jul CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Jul | 92.2 | 91.2 | |
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.650% | |||
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| Wednesday, Jul 29 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jul/24 MBA Refi Index | Jul/24 | 802.3 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jul/24 Mortgage Market Index | Jul/24 | 264.0 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jul/24 MBA Purchase Index | Jul/24 | 165.8 | ||
| 10:30AM | Jul/24 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jul/24 | -1.5M | 2.011M | |
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.079% | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 30 | |||
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75% | 3.75% | ||
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
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