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Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain
Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain
Monday was "nice." Bonds rallied more than a little bit and held those gains in an exceptionally flat manner all day. But there are caveats. Apart from last Friday, today's yields matched the long-term highs seen on July 23rd. Or on a more timely note, the rally didn't fully erase Friday's weakness. Additionally, strength was not a given. It required a fairly substantial drop in oil prices stepping from a fresh round Iran war optimism. This as been a fickle friend to say the least, though we'll never turn down the visit. Ample past precedent is a reminder that things can change quickly with respect to geopolitics. Last but not least, while econ data had no lasting impact today, Friday's jobs report is on another level.
Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Aug 04 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jun Trade Gap (bl) | Jun | $-73.3B | $-73.0B | $-77.6B |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $5.179 billion | |||
| 10:00AM | Aug IBD economic optimism | Aug | 45.1 | 47.5 | 45.5 |
| 10:00AM | Jun Factory orders mm (%) | Jun | -0.3% | 0.2% | -1.3% |
| 10:00AM | Jun JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Jun | 3.232M | 3.065M | |
| 10:00AM | Jun USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Jun | 7.359M | 7.4M | 7.594M |
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.640% | 3.700% | ||
| Wednesday, Aug 05 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jul/31 MBA Purchase Index | Jul/31 | 159.8 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jul/31 Mortgage Market Index | Jul/31 | 247.2 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jul/31 MBA Refi Index | Jul/31 | 723.1 | ||
| 8:15AM | Jul ADP jobs (k) | Jul | 70K | 98K | |
| 9:45AM | Jul S&P Global Services PMI | Jul | 53.6 | 51.2 | |
| 9:45AM | Jul S&P Global Composite PMI | Jul | 53.6 | 51.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM Biz Activity | Jul | 55.4 | ||
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM Services Employment | Jul | 51.2 | ||
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM Services New Orders | Jul | 55.1 | ||
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM Services Prices | Jul | 67.7 | ||
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM N-Mfg PMI | Jul | 54.5 | 54.0 | |
| 10:30AM | Jul/31 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jul/31 | -7.167M | ||
| 4:05PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
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