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Solid Showing For Logical Reasons
Solid Showing For Logical Reasons
Money flooded back into both sides of the market in a major way (albeit more "major" for the stock market) after Bessent said we could be days away from a new deal on Hormuz transit. Oil plunged to the lowest levels since July 13th and bond yields were willing to follow (also nearly back to 7/13 levels). MBS picked up more than quarter point and multiple lenders repriced for the better as the gains came in waves throughout the morning trading hours. Familiar risks remain. We've seen plenty of back and forth on the state of the war, but we can say the market seemed more willing than normal to buy into this latest pivot. Beyond that, econ data is a factor this week for bonds with ISM Services on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday. Dare we say that the jobs report is likely not quite as big of a risk/opportunity as ongoing oil price volatility? We'll let you know on Friday around 8:40am ET.
Solid Showing For Logical Reasons
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Aug 04 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jun Trade Gap (bl) | Jun | $-73.3B | $-73.0B | $-77.6B |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $5.179 billion | |||
| 10:00AM | Aug IBD economic optimism | Aug | 45.1 | 47.5 | 45.5 |
| 10:00AM | Jun Factory orders mm (%) | Jun | -0.3% | 0.2% | -1.3% |
| 10:00AM | Jun JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Jun | 3.232M | 3.065M | |
| 10:00AM | Jun USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Jun | 7.359M | 7.4M | 7.594M |
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.640% | 3.700% | ||
| Wednesday, Aug 05 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jul/31 MBA Purchase Index | Jul/31 | 159.8 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jul/31 Mortgage Market Index | Jul/31 | 247.2 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jul/31 MBA Refi Index | Jul/31 | 723.1 | ||
| 8:15AM | Jul ADP jobs (k) | Jul | 70K | 98K | |
| 9:45AM | Jul S&P Global Services PMI | Jul | 53.6 | 51.2 | |
| 9:45AM | Jul S&P Global Composite PMI | Jul | 53.6 | 51.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM Biz Activity | Jul | 55.4 | ||
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM Services Employment | Jul | 51.2 | ||
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM Services New Orders | Jul | 55.1 | ||
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM Services Prices | Jul | 67.7 | ||
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM N-Mfg PMI | Jul | 54.5 | 54.0 | |
| 10:30AM | Jul/31 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jul/31 | -7.167M | ||
| 4:05PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
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