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Minimal Overnight Volatility. Waiting on Data and War News
Minimal Overnight Volatility. Waiting on Data and War News
With the potential for a Hormuz deal floated earlier in the week, a more substantive announcement remains the biggest opportunity for the bond market until Friday's jobs report (and even then, could supersede the jobs report depending on the details). Conversely, another diplomatic breakdown or another re-escalation would be the biggest risk. There were no no hints of either eventuality overnight and the flat trading levels in bonds confirm that. In the meantime, we'll have some B-team data in the form of ISM Services this morning at 10am ET. This report isn't guaranteed to cause a reaction, but it certainly reserves that right if it falls appreciably far from forecasts. As always, the employment component of the ISM data carries some weight given that it adds another solid anecdote ahead of Friday's big jobs report. Oil prices drifted just a hair higher after initial overnight gains, and bonds have followed, but the movement is so small that it's just as fair to say everything is sideways so far.
Solid Showing For Logical Reasons
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Aug 05 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jul/31 MBA Purchase Index | Jul/31 | 154.0 | 159.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Jul/31 Mortgage Market Index | Jul/31 | 240.0 | 247.2 | |
| 7:00AM | Jul/31 MBA Refi Index | Jul/31 | 709.1 | 723.1 | |
| 8:15AM | Jul ADP jobs (k) | Jul | 44K | 70K | 98K |
| 9:45AM | Jul S&P Global Services PMI | Jul | 54.6 | 53.6 | 51.2 |
| 9:45AM | Jul S&P Global Composite PMI | Jul | 54.5 | 53.6 | 51.9 |
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM Biz Activity | Jul | 59.1 | 55.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM Services Employment | Jul | 47.4 | 51.2 | |
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM Services New Orders | Jul | 57.2 | 55.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM Services Prices | Jul | 70.3 | 67.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM N-Mfg PMI | Jul | 54.1 | 54.5 | 54.0 |
| 10:30AM | Jul/31 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jul/31 | 2.479M | -1.5M | -7.167M |
| 4:05PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| Thursday, Aug 06 | |||||
| 5:30AM | Jul Challenger layoffs (k) | Jul | 45.849K | ||
| 8:30AM | Jul/25 Continued Claims (k) | Jul/25 | 1790K | 1782K | |
| 8:30AM | Aug/01 Jobless Claims (k) | Aug/01 | 202K | 197K | |
| 8:30AM | Q2 Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final | Q2 | 2.1% | 1.8% | |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) | $3.453 billion | |||
| 5:30PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
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