Market Summary Report

Stephen Heston

Broker NMLS #1930964

Aspire Mortgage Solutions LLC NMLS #2481498

P: (509) 202-4424

www.aspiremortgagesolutions.com

102 W Main St. #3
Pullman WA 99163

Another Week, Another Oil Price Pivot

Monday, August 10, 2026

Another Week, Another Oil Price Pivot

Recent experience suggests the safest assumption about oil prices and bond yields is that they will pop and drop with reasonable regularity. In other words, lower prices/yields for a few days following friendly war-related headlines tend to give way to unfriendly headlines and a market reversal. Wash, rinse, repeat. The new week is starting off with unfriendly news and higher oil/yields. There's not much sense in attempting to dig any deeper on market analysis so far today.

Latest Video Analysis

Not The Rally We Expected, But The Rally We Got

MBS & Treasury Markets

UMBS 5.5

99.31

-0.23

10YR TREASURY

4.700

+0.053

8/10/2026 1:44PM EST

MBS Alert: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing Just a Bit More

Several lenders have already repriced for the worse. Nothing much has changed since out last alert, but bonds are just a bit weaker, and additional lenders are slightly more likely to be considering negative reprices. MBS are down 10 ticks (.31) and 10ys are up 5.5bps at 4.702. READ MORE

Alert:

MBS Down an Eighth Since 9:30am

MBS Morning:

Another Week, Another Oil Price Pivot

Today's Mortgage Rates

30YR Fixed

6.76%

+0.02%

15YR Fixed

6.27%

+0.02%

8/10/2026

Mortgage Rates Rise Modestly From 3 Week Lows

As of last Friday, average top-tier mortgage rates hit their lowest levels since July 20th. If they'd managed to drop even 0.01% today, it would have been a new 3-week low. As it stands, rates moved modestly higher in response to higher oil prices. Throughout the Iran war, oil and rates have had a broadly strong correlation because oil informs inflation expectations and inflation is a key input for the rate market. Even after today's rise, rates remain much closer... READ MORE

Last Week This Week Next Week

Economic Calendar

Time	Event	Period	Forecast	Prior
Monday, Aug 10
3:00PM	Fed Hammack Speech
Tuesday, Aug 11
6:00AM	Jul NFIB Business Optimism Index	Jul	97.8	97.4
8:15AM	ADP Employment Change Weekly			15.0K
9:20AM	NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%)		$5.179 billion
10:00AM	Jul Existing home sales (ml)	Jul	4.04M	4.09M
10:00AM	Jul Exist. home sales % chg (%)	Jul		-2.4%
11:30AM	6-Week Bill Auction (%)			3.640%
1:00PM	3-Yr Note Auction (bl)		58

Stephen Heston

Broker NMLS #1930964

Aspire Mortgage Solutions LLC NMLS #2481498

P: (509) 202-4424

www.aspiremortgagesolutions.com

102 W Main St. #3
Pullman WA 99163

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The interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages from independent data sources. Rate/APR terms may differ from those listed above based on the creditworthiness of the borrower. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or financial advice.

Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.