Bridget McNamara
Loan Officer
Community Mortgage Partners
License:
146437

Issuance and Oil Strike Back

Issuance and Oil Strike Back

Oil prices continue to ebb and flow in concert with the Iran war news cycle. There's no set schedule for such things, but there have been several Mondays where that narrative shifts in the opposite direction from wherever we left off at the end of the previous week. Last Wednesday was a recent low for oil and prices have risen since then. Today's increase was a bit of an acceleration so it's no surprise to see bond yields follow. Bonds also saw some mid-day pressure from an active corporate debt issuance landscape, but it's just as fair to say both oil prices and bonds yields have returned to the exact same levels seen during Tuesday's pre-market hours before the early rally.

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Issuance and Oil Strike Back

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5
99.11
-0.07 
10YR TREASURY
4.732
+0.023 
8/11/2026 5:04AM EST
Several lenders have already repriced for the worse. Nothing much has changed since out last alert, but bonds are just a bit weaker, and additional lenders are slightly more likely to be considering negative reprices. MBS are down 10 ticks (.31) and 10ys are up 5.5bps at 4.702.   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.76%
+0.02% 
15YR Fixed
6.27%
+0.02% 
8/10/2026
As of last Friday, average top-tier mortgage rates hit their lowest levels since July 20th. If they'd managed to drop even 0.01% today, it would have been a new 3-week low.  As it stands, rates moved modestly higher in response to higher oil prices. Throughout the Iran war, oil and rates have had a broadly strong correlation because oil informs inflation expectations and inflation is a key input for the rate market. Even after today's rise, rates remain much closer...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Aug 11
6:00AM Jul NFIB Business Optimism Index Jul 99.8 97.5 97.4
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 15.0K
9:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) $5.179 billion
10:00AM Jul Existing home sales (ml) Jul 4.04M 4.09M
10:00AM Jul Exist. home sales % chg (%) Jul -2.4%
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.640%
1:00PM 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 58
Wednesday, Aug 12
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 30YR
7:00AM Aug/07 MBA Refi Index Aug/07 709.1
7:00AM Aug/07 Mortgage Market Index Aug/07 240.0
7:00AM Aug/07 MBA Purchase Index Aug/07 154.0
8:30AM Jul m/m CORE CPI (%) Jul 0.2% 0%
8:30AM Jul y/y Headline CPI (%) Jul 3.4% 3.5%
8:30AM Jul y/y CORE CPI (%) Jul 2.5% 2.6%
8:30AM Jul m/m Headline CPI (%) Jul 0.1% -0.4%
10:30AM Aug/07 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Aug/07 -1.3M 2.479M
12:00PM WASDE Report (%)
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 42
2:00PM Jul Federal budget (bl) Jul $-361.2B $-120B
Bridget McNamara
Loan Officer
Community Mortgage Partners
License:
146437