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Bonds Looking Somewhat Optimistic Ahead of CPI
Bonds Looking Somewhat Optimistic Ahead of CPI
Bonds improved modestly on Tuesday which is actually a somewhat resilient/optimistic showing. The ongoing correlation with oil prices suggested less improvement (oil actually closed higher on the day). In addition, it's usually less of a surprise to see bonds struggle to rally on the first half of an auction cycle week. Granted, a spicy CPI on Wednesday would easily push back against any optimistic narratives, but if the data is tame, perhaps we're seeing hints that bonds would be more willing to respond than normal.
Bonds Looking Somewhat Optimistic Ahead of CPI
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Aug 12 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Aug/07 MBA Refi Index | Aug/07 | 744.4 | 709.1 | |
| 7:00AM | Aug/07 Mortgage Market Index | Aug/07 | 248.6 | 240.0 | |
| 7:00AM | Aug/07 MBA Purchase Index | Aug/07 | 157.9 | 154.0 | |
| 8:30AM | Jul m/m CORE CPI (%) | Jul | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0% |
| 8:30AM | Jul y/y Headline CPI (%) | Jul | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| 8:30AM | Jul y/y CORE CPI (%) | Jul | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
| 8:30AM | Jul m/m Headline CPI (%) | Jul | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.4% |
| 10:30AM | Aug/07 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Aug/07 | -1.4M | 2.479M | |
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 42 | |||
| 2:00PM | Jul Federal budget (bl) | Jul | $-346B | $-120B | |
| Thursday, Aug 13 | |||||
| 8:15AM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Jul Core PPI y/y (%) | Jul | 4.2% | 4.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug/08 Jobless Claims (k) | Aug/08 | 202K | 199K | |
| 8:30AM | Aug/01 Continued Claims (k) | Aug/01 | 1800K | 1801K | |
| 8:30AM | Jul PPI m/m (%) | Jul | 0.2% | -0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Core PPI m/m (%) | Jul | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul PPI y/y | Jul | 4.9% | 5.5% | |
| 8:40AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 5.058% | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 25 | |||
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