No Major Reaction to As-Expected CPI
No Major Reaction to As-Expected CPI
It would have been hard for CPI to be any more boring. All key metrics came in perfectly in line with forecasts. Supercore (core minus housing), was 0.189, which is a monthly equivalent of "close enough to the 2.0% target." Core CPI itself was 0.215%, which extrapolates to 2.58% year-over-year. The volume response let's us know that traders were indeed ready to trade this data, but logically, it's hard to make a case for a directional bias when everything in the report was so bland. In other news, bonds rallied overnight, so "flat after CPI" means we're holding moderate gains.
Bonds Looking Somewhat Optimistic Ahead of CPI
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Aug 12 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Aug/07 MBA Refi Index | Aug/07 | 744.4 | 709.1 | |
| 7:00AM | Aug/07 Mortgage Market Index | Aug/07 | 248.6 | 240.0 | |
| 7:00AM | Aug/07 MBA Purchase Index | Aug/07 | 157.9 | 154.0 | |
| 8:30AM | Jul m/m CORE CPI (%) | Jul | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0% |
| 8:30AM | Jul y/y Headline CPI (%) | Jul | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| 8:30AM | Jul y/y CORE CPI (%) | Jul | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
| 8:30AM | Jul m/m Headline CPI (%) | Jul | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.4% |
| 10:30AM | Aug/07 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Aug/07 | 17.422M | -1.4M | 2.479M |
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 42 | |||
| 2:00PM | Jul Federal budget (bl) | Jul | $-346B | $-120B | |
| Thursday, Aug 13 | |||||
| 8:15AM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Jul Core PPI y/y (%) | Jul | 4.2% | 4.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug/08 Jobless Claims (k) | Aug/08 | 202K | 199K | |
| 8:30AM | Aug/01 Continued Claims (k) | Aug/01 | 1800K | 1801K | |
| 8:30AM | Jul PPI m/m (%) | Jul | 0.2% | -0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Core PPI m/m (%) | Jul | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul PPI y/y | Jul | 4.9% | 5.5% | |
| 8:40AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 5.058% | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 25 | |||
