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Thank You PPI
Thank You PPI
If nothing else, this morning offers confirmation of just how nervous the market is about inflation. The producer price index barely beat its forecast (in fact y/y CORE PPI was on the screws), but this was enough for bonds to add on to modest overnight gains in a modestly enthusiastic way. We almost never see this much of a reaction to this small of a beat/miss in PPI. The other consideration is that oil has been trending lower since 3am, and bonds stayed almost perfectly flat from 4am-8:30am, but this should only be viewed as a small supporting actor in this morning's rally. Stocks jumped at 9:30am as well, arguably adding evidence that retail stock investors appreciated the inflation message as well.
Bonds End Flat After Front-Running The Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Aug 13 | |||||
| 8:15AM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Jul Core PPI y/y (%) | Jul | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% |
| 8:30AM | Aug/08 Jobless Claims (k) | Aug/08 | 209K | 202K | 199K |
| 8:30AM | Aug/01 Continued Claims (k) | Aug/01 | 1777K | 1800K | 1801K |
| 8:30AM | Jul PPI m/m (%) | Jul | 0% | 0.2% | -0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Core PPI m/m (%) | Jul | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Jul PPI y/y | Jul | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% |
| 8:40AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 5.216% | 5.058% | ||
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 25 | |||
| Friday, Aug 14 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jul Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Jul | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Retail Sales (%) | Jul | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 9:00AM | Fed Venable Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Aug Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Aug | 4.2% | ||
| 10:00AM | Aug U Mich conditions | Aug | 55 | 54.8 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Aug | 3.3% | ||
| 10:00AM | Jun Business Inventories (% ) | Jun | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Aug Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Aug | 54.5 | 55.2 | |
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