Market Summary Report

Nick Hunter

President, Owner

River City Mortgage, LLC

www.rchomeloans.com

Solid Data-Driven Gains

Friday, August 14, 2026

Solid Data-Driven Gains

Thursday was a fairly straightforward session for bonds. Yields fell modestly overnight in response to slightly lower oil prices and then more forcefully after the cooler-than-expected PPI data. Mid-day fuel price volatility caused a slight pull-back, but not enough to undo a reasonably robust rally by the close. If there's a "yeah but," it's that yields remain broadly sideways near long-term highs and were unable to challenge last week's lows.

Latest Video Analysis

Solid Data-Driven Gains

MBS & Treasury Markets

UMBS 5.5

99.64

+0.02

10YR TREASURY

4.648

+0.004

8/14/2026 7:39AM EST

MBS Alert: MBS Down 6 Ticks (.19) From Highs

MBS are still up more than a quarter point on the day (+ 9 ticks or .28), but down 6 ticks (.19) from the highs. Whether or not that creates reprice risk will depend on the lender in question. The earliest lenders priced at fairly similar levels to where we are right now. Lenders who priced after 10:15am ET are at higher risk as that's when MBS hit the AM highs. The bounce was a factor of higher oil prices which followed news of a new aircraft carrier being deployed ... READ MORE

MBS Morning:

Thank You PPI

Alert:

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing

Today's Mortgage Rates

30YR Fixed

6.69%

-0.05%

15YR Fixed

6.26%

-0.01%

8/13/2026

Lowest Mortgage Rates in Nearly 4 Weeks

Mortgage rates dropped noticeably on Thursday on a combination of lower oil prices and a lower inflation reading via the Producer Price Index (PPI). Rates are driven by bonds and bonds are highly responsive to the outlook for inflation and the economy. The Iran war caused inflation implications to spike and the periodic relief in fuel prices has coincided with bond market improvement (and lower rates). The official inflation data is just another form of the same benefit. F... READ MORE

Last Week This Week Next Week

Economic Calendar

Time	Event	Period	Actual	Forecast	Prior
Friday, Aug 14
8:30AM	Jul Retail Sales Control Group MoM	Jul	-0.4%	0.3%	0.5%
8:30AM	Jul Retail Sales (%)	Jul	-0.6%	0.1%	0.2%
9:00AM	Fed Venable Speech
10:00AM	Aug Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%)	Aug	4.3%		4.2%
10:00AM	Aug U Mich conditions	Aug	51.8	55	54.8
10:00AM	Aug Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%)	Aug	3.3%		3.3%
10:00AM	Jun Business Inventories (% )	Jun	0%	0.1%	0.3%
10:00AM	Aug Consumer Sentiment (ip)	Aug	51.0	54.5	55.2
Monday, Aug 17
12:00AM	Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR
8:30AM	Aug NY Fed Manufacturing	Aug			15.60
10:00AM	Aug NAHB housing market indx	Aug			34
12:00PM	NOPA Crush Report (%)

Nick Hunter

President, Owner

River City Mortgage, LLC

www.rchomeloans.com

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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.