Market Summary Report

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Boring Day But At Least Bonds Turned Green

Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Boring Day But At Least Bonds Turned Green

Tuesday offered remarkably of interest or consequence for the bond market. The most notable development was the brief visit to 4.75% in 10yr yields followed by the emergence of the quintessential "dip buyer" (i.e. "hey look... yields are high enough again that I think I'm going to buy some Treasuries"). The post-9:30am timing adds emphasis to that mentality among the retail investor community. Apart from that, there were no obvious motivations or relevant data points. Wednesday suffers a similar absence of scheduled events with the only exception being the Fed Minutes release at 2pm ET.

Latest Video Analysis

Boring Day But at Least it Ended Green

MBS & Treasury Markets

UMBS 5.5

99.22

-0.03

10YR TREASURY

4.727

+0.005

8/17/2026 8:45PM EST

MBS Morning: Weaker Start, But Traders Buying The Dip

Big picture momentum has been calmly but clearly skewed toward higher yields for almost 10 months. There have been a few attempts to bounce at technical ceilings along the way up from 4.0% 10yr yields (4.3%, 4.42%, and 4.75%). August has been mostly sideways near the longer-term highs, but the first two days of this week have set up another challenge of the 4.75% technical ceiling. From a simple "value buying" standpoint, there's always some magical line in the sand where inv... READ MORE

Alert:

Down an Eighth From Highs

MBS Morning:

Under Some Pressure For Usual Reasons

Today's Mortgage Rates

30YR Fixed

6.75%

+0.02%

15YR Fixed

6.31%

+0.01%

8/18/2026

Mortgage Rates Continue Higher Despite Bond Market Improvement

Mortgage rates rose for the third straight day on Tuesday with the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moving up a modest 0.02% to 6.75%. Notably, the bond market was actually in slightly better shape compared to yesterday--something that would normally be good news for rates. So what's the catch? As is often the case when bonds and mortgages disagree, the x factor is timing. Mortgage lenders prefer to release rates once per day (usually around 10am ET) and they only change r... READ MORE

Last Week This Week Next Week

Economic Calendar

Time	Event	Period	Actual	Forecast	Prior
Tuesday, Aug 18
8:15AM	ADP Employment Change Weekly		9.5K		8.25K
8:30AM	Jul Building Permits (ml)	Jul	1.443M	1.37M	1.374M
8:30AM	Jul Import prices mm (%)	Jul	-0.4%	0.1%	0.3%
8:30AM	Jul Housing starts number mm (ml)	Jul	1.239M	1.35M	1.427M
9:15AM	Jul Industrial Production (%)	Jul	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
10:00AM	Jul Pending Home Sales (%)	Jul	-2.3%	0.3%	-5.4%
11:30AM	6-Week Bill Auction (%)		3.645%		3.670%
Wednesday, Aug 19
12:00AM	Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR
7:00AM	Aug/14 Mortgage Market Index	Aug/14			248.6
7:00AM	Aug/14 MBA Purchase Index	Aug/14			157.9
7:00AM	Aug/14 MBA Refi Index	Aug/14			744.4
10:30AM	Aug/14 Crude Oil Inventory (ml)	Aug/14			17.422M
1:00PM	20-Yr Bond Auction (bl)			16
2:00PM	FOMC Minutes

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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.